Fallout Downwind and Fallout Shelter Models:
Fallout Downwind Models -
Fallout Shelter Model Win97 - or
Win95
Related Sites: -
Nuclear Survival Site
Fallout Protection
Booklet (USGovt)
Free FEMA Radiological
Monitor Course(PDF)
Free FEMA Radiological
Emergency Management Course (PDF)
Accidental Nuclear War (New Engl. Jrnl Med. Art.)
Gregory Walker's Shelter Documents Site
U.K. Radiological
Documents Online
Potassium Iodide FAQ - block major
radionucleide uptake with KI tablets - low cost sources...
Unconventional
Warfare pages
Email suggestions, updates,
links, glitches to fix - Thanks!
Guiding Principle the more mass between you and the fallout - the better |
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Fallout is simply radioactive dust from a nuclear explosion.
Fallout acts like ordinary dirt and dust when it falls to earth.
Fallout dust just happens to be radioactive too.
If you could surround yourself with a mass equivalent to 150-175 pounds
per square foot
of anything in all directions, you would have a shelter which
would cut your exposure to gamma radiation by 99%. You would only get 1%
(pf=0.01) of the dose of an unprotected person outside your shelter.
You could use 150-175 pounds of books or newspaper per square foot of
shelter wallspace. The same 150-175 pounds of mass could be canned goods,
or packed dirt, or concrete blocks. A few inches of heavy lead would also
do the trick. So anything can be used as shielding, but heavier stuff is
preferred as being more compact.
All of these will also reduce radiation exposure by 99% (pf=0.01):
Radiation
Fallout particles act as sources of gamma or x-ray radiation, which is
our key concern here. Fallout particles also give off less penetrating
radiation known as alpha and beta particles. These particles are also
dangerous if inhaled, ingested, or if left on your skin. However, alpha
radiation is blocked by most clothing, and beta particles are blocked by
an inch or two of wood or other shielding. So we will worry most about
the gamma rays emitted by fallout, which are the most penetrating and
dangerous to us even within most shelters.
Measurement
The amount of gamma or other radiation can be measured in physical units
called RADs or in a biological equivalent dosage called
REMs. Ideally, calibrated instruments would be
available to measure the radiation dosage rate and accumulated dose. But if
you don't have such instruments handy, don't panic. Our tips here will
help you to select the best available local shelter based on some simple
principles. Knowing your exact dosage is less important than knowing
how to minimize that dosage, thanks to the ideas discussed below!
Gamma Rays
Each fallout particle emits a mix of gamma rays and x-rays plus alpha and
beta particles. Only the strong x-rays and gamma rays have the
penetrating power to go through the few inches of wood usually found in
most frame homes. Gamma rays are a form of electromagnetic radiation and act
like light in
many ways, except that they can easily penetrate through solid objects.
This fact explains why x-rays or gamma rays are useful in finding
cavities in teeth or broken bones, thanks to their penetrating power.
We usually lump the hard x-rays in with the gamma rays to keep it simple.
Fallout particles emit gamma radiation in all directions,
continuously, at a rate defined by the kind of radioactive elements in
the fallout.
Protection Factors
Although gamma rays can penetrate many inches of matter, some gamma rays
are absorbed or scattered, depending on the thickness of the shielding
and nature of the material. A very dense substance like steel may
prevent 99% of the gamma rays from penetrating through 6+ inches of
steel. Only one percent of the gamma rays could penetrate such a shelter
wall, providing a protection factor of 1/100th (pf=0.01). If only 10% of the
gamma rays
could pass into a basement shelter, then we would say that shelter has a
protection factor of one-tenth (pf=0.1). If half the gamma rays get
through a frame
house, we would say the house has a protection factor of one-half
(pf=.5). Obviously, the smaller your protection factor number, the less
radiation that is going to get past your shielding and into you!
Best Shelters
The very best underground fallout shelters use 3 to 5 feet of packed
earth for
shielding, and have a protection factor of 1/500th or more (pf=.002). In
other words, if a person outside would get 500 RADs of gamma radiation in
an hour shortly after a nuclear burst, the person in the underground
shelter with a protection factor of 1/500th would only get 1/500th of the
outside dosage, or just one (1) RAD!
Dirt Cheap Shelter
Why are underground shelters usually the best fallout shelters? First,
dirt has a lot of weight, or mass, so it strongly absorbs gamma
radiation. Second, dirt is plentiful and cheap. From the list below, you can
see why we say that fallout protection is literally dirt-cheap!
Dirt Thickness | Protection factor |
---|---|
16 inches | pf=0.1 |
32 inches | pf=0.01 |
48 inches | pf=0.001 |
Gamma like Light Rays
If you are out in the open, fallout on the ground (and structures) around
you will be sending gamma radiation your way. Gamma rays act like light
rays, except that you can't see gamma rays directly. If you could see
this gamma
radiation, you would see a ''glow'' coming from the ground all around you
in a contaminated area. At first, the ''glow'' would be very bright,
representing a high level of gamma radioactivity. Over the course of
hours and days, this radioactive ''glow'' would dim and decline rapidly.
Hot-Spots
Some areas would glow brighter than others, due to
hot spots or concentrations of fallout in that area. These hot
spots could be caused by random effects, rain clearing fallout as dust
particles out of the radioactive mushroom cloud, or perhaps winds or
run-off down a slope. Unfortunately, we can't see or feel gamma or other
fallout radiation. But I find it useful to think of each fallout particle
as emitting a ''glow'' of gamma radiation in all directions - including
my own!
Apartment Buildings
Now you can understand why the top floors of an apartment building are
not a good place to seek shelter. Fallout on the roof would
''shine'' down on you directly below. Similarly, the ground floor would
also be a bad choice for a shelter site. Fallout on the ground would also
irradiate you directly from outside. Using this knowledge, you would
likely guess that the best place to seek shelter in a multi-story
apartment building without an underground basement would probably be on
the middle level floors. Moreover, you would guess that the center of
those floors would probably be the most desirable spot too. A floor with
lots of steel filing cabinets filed with heavy papers would add
further shielding to the building itself. We are just applying the
principle of surrounding ourselves with as much mass as possible
between us and all sources of radiation (including overhead on the
roof).
Frame House
Let us assume you are in a rocky area (so you can't
dig a hole) at an isolated frame house just a few hours downwind from a
target site. A typical frame house has a very poor protection factor,
often as little as pf=0.8 - little better than standing outside
unprotected (pf=1). What can you do that would improve this situation?
First, look for interior rooms, preferably ones without windows or direct
exposure via a single wall to the outside fallout. Second, are there any
natural shielding building elements, such as a closet, bathroom, or
kitchen closet? Third, are there any spots with more mass around them?
For example, a well stocked food closet filled with cans has a lot of
mass in it. The kitchen next door may have a lot of appliances that are
also relatively heavy. In such a scenario, you might select this inside
area as your best available shelter. Using our shelter within a
shelter approach, you could greatly improve this shelter site too.
Timing Is Everything!
I suggest that you realize that the first few hours or days after a
nuclear burst provide the vast amount of radiation exposure (up to 90%).
You simply have to be in shelter during this period to avoid a
potentially fatal dose in many downwind areas. It is critical that you be
inside a shelter rather than outside or exposed during this early, high
radiation intensity period!
Shelter within a Shelter
If you have only a limited amount of
shelter building materials, consider building a shelter within a
shelter. Such a shelter within a shelter aims to gather up and keep
as much mass as you can around you during these first critical days. For
example, I might stack a door on top of my bed, pile it high with books,
and surround the bed with boxes of canned goods, containers of water, and
whatever else I could find that was heavy and sturdy. Now I might spend
several uncomfortable days on bedding and a pillow under the bed.
The extra shielding around me would probably reduce my exposure by
another 50% or more. That's worth a few days of discomfort if you can
avoid sickness or maybe a future cancer or two!
Improvements
Most shelters can be very effectively improved by placing mass around, as
well as above and under if needed, if a rational manner. Try to think
about and identify any spots where you have little or no shielding or
protection. Provide additional shielding as you can to fill in these holes.
Move a TV set, a piece of furniture, or other sturdy item into these spots.
Cover and fill spaces with smaller items, such as cans, containers of
water, a refrigerator, books and newspapers, or any relatively heavy or
easily moved object.
Look Up!
Be sure to look up and evaluate your overhead protection. To reduce
radiation from overhead, you can put a sturdy workbench or tables in your
prime shelter area. You can stack materials on top of your table or
workbench (but not so much that you get killed when it collapses on
you!). If you don't have a table, you can make one using a door and some
chairs or other supports. Appliances like refrigerators also make
great supports and provide additional shielding mass too.
Dirty Tricks
Remember that dirt makes an excellent, cheap shielding material. In a
single room shack, for example, you might pile up dirt in one corner of
the shack, against
the outside walls. This idea works best if you are far from the burst
site and have some hours to prepare or improve an effective shelter, and
easier if you have farm or other earth moving equipment. You could then
use a table inside the shack, against that corner, to provide support for
shielding above you,
while packing stuff around you in this protected corner shelter. Such
a shelter could easily be 50 or 100 times better protection than the
original shack.
Leaning Tricks
Another shelter trick uses one or more doors
from the frame house, leaned at an angle against the outer wall of the
house or shelter. Inside the house or shelter, pile up shielding against
the corresponding wall. Another trick is to dig up your house garden
plants next to the house, assuming they are small and the soil is easier
to dig and turn with a spade or shovel there. You can remove a foot or two
or more of dirt in a trench against the house, circa 2 or more feet out
from the wall. Now lean the doors over this trench, and use the dirt you
removed to build up a packed shelter wall on the leaning door(s). Add more
dirt as time and strength allows. You will end up with a triangle shaped
shelter cross-section, as long as a door (or two), with a recessed trench
and earth covered door shelter wall. You can put up some end supports to
help keep the door from slipping
if needed. Remember to pack some sand-bags (pillowcases?) or other
shielding to close off the open ends of your shelter.
Trench shelter
The trench shelter is a variation on the leaning door shelter, but
assumes you have the time or equipment to quickly dig a suitable trench.
Put one or more doors over the trench, sideways if need be, to cover the
hole and provide a support to pile dirt on top of the door(s).
The doors come in handy again as sturdy and available supports for packing a
depth of 2 to 3 or more feet of dirt on top of the trench. You can also
use boards or any other sturdy support that can bear the weight of
several feet of earth over the trench. Use sandbags or pile up dirt in
the entrance area. Remember to leave a small air circulation hole or two.
Keep in mind
that it can rain during days or weeks of a shelter stay. Make sure you
put in drainage ditching as needed to
keep water from running into your shelter too. The trench shelter is very
high protection factor, since you are effectively below ground and have 2
to 3 feet of dirt shielding overhead as well.
Car Shelter
Unfortunately, cars are not very good shelters, due to the use of
plastics and thin metal which provides minimal shielding. However, if you
are caught in the open with just your car, you can use it to also make an
effective shelter. Note that nuclear explosion's electromagnetic pulse
effects may destroy your car's electronic fuel injection circuit, turning
your car into a unstartable junker. So you might as well use it to save
your life. You can use the slit trench idea
described here, but position your car over the trench in place of the
suggested boards or doors. The engine is obviously more massive than the
trunk, and can provide some useful shielding. You can pile up dirt
underneath the car, as well as in the car's trunk and internal areas.
Root-Cellars
Many Americans have storm cellars or root cellars on their properties in
the mid-west especially, due to hurricanes and tornado threats.
Obviously, such a partially or fully underground structure offers many
advantages as a fallout shelter. Usually, improvements to the shielding
of the sides and top of these shelters are sufficient to make them into
outstanding fallout shelters too.
Basements
Basements vary greatly in the amount of shielding and protection they
will give as fallout shelters (e.g., pf=.1 to .6). You can greatly
improve that shielding by using some of the tricks and ideas in this
article. For example, you can use the steps leading down into a basement
as a sturdy structure on which to pile additional shielding, and take
refuge under the basement steps. You can move and pile up as much
shielding on the floor above the basement shelter area (i.e., that corner).
Most basements are filled with heavy boxes of stuff that is just perfect
for use as fallout shielding material. Maybe that's why all that stuff is
being saved down there! You can use the leaning door or sturdy workbench
ideas to provide additional shielding.
I would also like to contrast two situations where our rules seem
to differ, but really don't. In
an apartment building where you are above ground, you position the walls
and floors above and below you to form a shelter around, over, and under
you. In the basement or where you are underground, you only have to worry
about fallout radiation coming down at you from directly above or through
windows or unprotected (i.e., unburied) sections of basement wall. By
picking a underground basement corner, you would have maximum protection
from the dirt and walls around and under you and at your back. You would
probably
add most of your protection above you and to the unprotected sides facing
out into the basement central area. You would also reduce the radiation
coming into the center area of the basement by blocking up windows.
Piling up dirt around the basement would also be another way to improve
its effectiveness. Moving heavy items on top of your shelter area on the
floor above would also help provide overhead protection. So the main
principle of surrounding yourself with mass is the same in both cases.
But in the basement corner, you are already surrounded by dirt or
concrete below and on two sides. Focus your worries about radiation from
above, and from the unprotected open sides around you. Make sense?
Garden smart
Lots of folks also have flower beds or gardens near their basement or
homes outer walls. These dirt embankments can greatly increase the
protection factor of the internal basement by providing more shielding.
The problem usually lies in the upper part of the basement walls which
lie above the surface. Dirt embankments for flower beds and the like will
help cover up such holes in the basement's shielding. It is also very
helpful to have sufficient sandbags or shielding to put into any windows
which are in your basement. Obviously, the window glass does very little
to impede gamma radiation entry into your basement. Put up heavy bags of
dirt, canned goods, books or other heavy items into these windowsills to
help reduce radiation entering through this opening.
Stairwells
In many cases, stairwells provide additional mass and a sturdy support
for a temporary shelter. Pack stuff on the stairs and sides, and you are
set. Some buildings have concrete stairwells that are very high
protection factor zones. Internal walls and stairwells may provide
additional shielding too. A concrete car parking facility might be a
possible shelter site, but an under the stairs shelter would probably
provide the best least exposed shelter in such a facility.
Overpasses
Overpasses are basically tunnels into the earth with large openings at
each end. Depending on their length, they may provide a very useful
shelter site, especially if you are trapped away from other sites. As you
might expect, the center of most overpasses near an under-earth wall
probably provides the most protection. Cars parked or moved into a
semicircle in such a shelter might provide extra protection too.
Drainage Pipes
In your efforts to find a quick underground shelter, don't overlook
drainage pipes. In many cases, these metal or concrete pipes provide a
pretty high shielding factor on their own, especially when buried as is
often the case. Even if the site isn't ideal for a two week stay, you
might find one offers the best protection in an otherwise open area. A
few days spent in such a shelter is likely to make even Motel 6 look
great, but will likely beat most above ground shelters. The main concern
is that there not be any active drainage or use during your residency,
especially if this means fallout will get washed into your shelter area.
Mines, Caves, etc.
Again, any underground site such as a mine or cave is simply a natural
for a fallout shelter, especially if you can bring enough supplies to
make it habitable for a full 2 week or longer shelter stay.
Why a 2 week shelter stay? |
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Why do most civil defense publications recommend a two week shelter stay? Consider our rule of 7 and 10. A 1000 RAD/hr at one hour after a burst dose rate will decay to 100 RADs/hr in 7 hours, 10 RADs/hr in 49 hrs (2 days), and 1 RADs/hr in 14 days. To get another ten-fold reduction to 0.1 RADs/hr, you would have to wait about 90 days or 3 months! That's a lot of supplies to store. Still, waiting four weeks will drop that 1 RAD/hr rate down to about 1/3rd RAD/hr - a worthwhile change if you have the supplies and patience to wait it out. |
Shelter Related Issues
Creating or finding a shelter is only a small part of the battle. Living
in your shelter for at least 2 days and preferably two weeks or more is
also critical. Naturally, you will be way ahead if you setup and prepare
and stock up now, after reading this, than if you wait! ;-) But if you
have to prepare a shelter fast, here are some critical ideas to keep in mind.
Air Circulation
Contrary to general belief, you can't just tape yourself up into your
shelter to keep fallout on the outside. You need to have some modest
amount of air turnover and flow into and out of your shelter. Most
shelters will do this naturally, and the required openings and air flow
aren't large. But you don't need a wind tunnel effect either ;-).
The ideal method for circulating air would use a commercial air filter
with hand pump designed for fallout shelter use. These pipes have screens
and conical caps to help keep fallout out of the air and their piping. A
cap inside the shelter can close the pipe opening if you are in the outer
blast
zone, or if a fire happens over the shelter site.
Unfortunately, the vast
majority of emergency or prepared fallout shelters won't have such an air
filtration system. Air will circulate naturally in most
buildings and shelter structures, if modest air circulation paths are
provided. Prevent air-borne fallout dust
from blowing directly into the shelter. Any path that would cause dust to
get trapped or precipitate out, such as turns or dust traps, will also
prevent fallout contaminated dust from circulating into the shelter. When
you setup these air circulation holes or pathways, don't forget that you
still have to provide shielding for the shelter at those points too.
Extra sandbags or shielding material around or behind these openings
may work.
Water
Water is one of the most critical items for making a successful
shelter. If you don't have enough water to survive at least 2 or more
weeks in your shelter, you will probably come out into a contaminated area
to get it. So it is critical that you acquire enough water or find it in
an emergency.
Some water sources are obvious, such as defrosting contents of your
refrigerator. If you have a flush toilet, you probably have some gallons
of water accessible in an emergency. In some cases, you can still get
water out of your home's pipes after water services have shut down. Close
service to any outside water mains, if needed, to prevent water from
draining out that way. Open a faucet on the top floor to allow air
pressure to enter the pipes, preventing a vacuum effect. Now open a
faucet or pipe on the lower/lowest floor or basement. What water is in
your homes pipes should now be available to you. Usually, this water
source can supply a surprising number of gallons of water. Office
buildings or other buildings with water service may also be tapped
this way.
Lots of buildings have boilers to supply heat or steam or other services.
These boilers usually have water in them and their associated pipes. The
amount of water may be quite large and nearby, in the event you are stuck
in an office building basement shelter.
At the risk of being obvious, many buildings and sites have employee
kitchens or spots where water might be stored (along with lunches etc.).
Naturally, soft drink machines are subject to raids for life giving needs.
The subject of post-attack water purification is important, but I can
only touch on it here. Ideally, use a zeolite or similar brand water
purifier as your last stage of water purification. A vacuum or micropore
filter for removing heavy metals and related impurities from water, such
as are used for travel in certain polluted third world cities and
environments, is also great. You would probably need to filter out any
bacteria and floating debris from suspect water supplies. A simple sand
and cloth based filter is one approach, using 2 or more feet of sand
filtering. If you had to use such water directly, you would want to kill
off any bacteria and most viruses by boiling if possible. You can
make the water taste less flat by moving it between several
containers, so air gets absorbed by the boiled water. Another handy
idea is to use some tincture of iodine or chlorine bleach (e.g., Chlorox)
in sufficient strength (5-6 drops per gallon) to kill off most germs.
Be sure to give the chlorine, iodine, or bromine time to do its work
(i.e. half-hour). The water should be clear and taste slightly like
chlorine or bleach, but not excessively so.
Food
Food is obviously a problem. Most U.S. cities have only a few days worth of
food stocks before they would run out. Most suburbs and small towns are
almost as bad. Along with the availability of food goes the issue of
preparation. Refrigeration is probably out, as is most cooking,
especially in hot summertime shelters. Some food items go bad quickly
(e.g., mayo), and adding food poisoning to radiation sickness is no
joke.
It makes sense to first use up any readily available
frozen foods which are in sites where power has been lost to the
refrigerators. In general, it is best to minimize the number of times
you open a refrigerator to maximize the freshness of food therein. One
source has recommended turning the refrigerator on its back so cold
air stays trapped inside when you carefully and slowly open the
door. Defrosted ice slush and water are also less likely to run out
this way, and might be scavenged in a pinch.
Intermediate foods like fruits, breads, and other items subject to
spoiling should be eaten relatively quickly. Since fallout is dust, you
can help keep it out of food by keeping cans (and can openers) clean,
opening cans from the bottom, and carefully dusting off packages before
opening. Fruits in refrigerators and other enclosed containers are
probably okay, and peeling fruits will greatly reduce the chance of
fallout contamination. But some leafy vegetables may be a poor dietary
choice in the post-attack environment, unless lots of fresh water is
available for cleaning.
Canned goods have very long shelf lives, so they would be
usable at any time. Unlike water and air, you can survive for days or
longer without food. So suppress those big-Mac attacks in the middle of
a nuclear attack! Hunger pangs will be worst during the first few days of
any diet, but quickly less thereafter. Eating what you have in smaller
meals and more often is also recommended (shrinks stomach size and hunger
pangs). As an inactive adult in a restricted shelter area, you will
probably need much less food than your normal active lifestyle
requires.
Sanitation
Sanitation is another shelter related problem. The same bottle of bleach
that might be used to purify water can also be used to kill germs. Some
improvising can convert an office trash can into a fallout shelter
toilet. Magazines, Sears catalogs, and newspapers have served as toilet
paper in our nation's past, and may again. Those plastic trash can bags
from the home or office can be used and reused with ty-raps to simplify
waste disposal. Pesticide sprays may also be available and handy. A wet
towel can be kept wet for washing by putting into a trash bag and sealing
it shut to prevent evaporation. As vomiting is a common sign of
radiation sickness, you should expect such problems by having barf
bags available. Be sure to address dehydration issues from such
symptoms. Finally, don't soak up a lot of
RADs during the early post-attack period just to get to a real bathroom.
Messes can be cleaned up or washed off later, but you can't unload
that extra radiation exposure so easily.
Temperature
A shelter can be too hot or too cold, depending on location and local
climate. Some thought to providing blankets or clothing or other
insulation is clearly useful. Speaking of cold weather insulation, I can
vouch personally for the use of newspapers as great insulators from some
snow survival camping courses. Most heat is lost through contact
underneath the person in cold weather, then from the head and extremities.
Hot weather is harder to handle, except with increased air circulation, but
most shelters are usually either underground or inside where it is
cooler. The importance of adequate water sources is even more critical in
hot conditions,
although use of salt and conserving movement until evening is usually
helpful.
Beds
Beds are where and how you make them. An under the table shelter might
use just a mattress. A trench shelter might use some strategically dug
holes for the hips and shoulders plus some newspaper insulation. In an
office building, you might make beds (and stretchers) out of shirts
strung and buttoned over two broom poles laid out between chairs.
Chairs may work too, or even the floor if sufficiently exhausted. ;-)
Iodine
I would probably be remiss if I didn't remind you that iodine is one of
the major dangers during a reactor accident. Iodine has a gaseous
transfer mode, so it can rapidly spread and contaminate a large
area quickly. Release of radioiodine is
dangerous because iodine is preferentially concentrated in the thyroid gland.
The radioiodine builds up and irradiates the thyroid, causing cancers and
other problems.
A partial solution is to take non-radioactive iodine
tablets. Unfortunately, you may not find these at your local drugstore.
After Chernobyl, the value of such tablets is beyond doubt - except to
the certain (ahem) governments who are afraid of causing a panic by
stocking them. Special order yours now and avoid the wait.
You can possibly benefit by using iodized salt in a pinch (pun intended).
Some vitamin supplements, especially kelp and seaweeds, are iodine
sources. This iodine issue is another reason to consider using tincture
of iodine based water purification methods too.
Vitamin and Mineral Supplements
Related to radio-iodine are the other ''bad'' radioisotopes that minimic
other body needed elements (chiefly calcium as used in bones and teeth),
and so get picked up from contaminated food
and water. Radio-strontium and radio-cesium are two major examples. As with
radio-iodine, providing a large stock of calcium before and during
exposure can reduce the uptake of these radioactive alternates.
Besides
digestible calcium tablets (with vitamin D or other uptake enhancers),
you should also look at a broad spectrum mineral and vitamin supplements.
Diets are likely to be proscribed after an attack, radiation damage will
need to be
rebuilt, and vitamin and other supplements have a role to play. Finally,
some of us may be taking mega-doses of free radical reducing vitamins
such as vitamin E and C as well as selenium and other supplements during
and into the post attack period. I caution that whether such free radical
scavenging
vitamins and minerals will reduce the effects of radiation ionization is
not fully studied. However, vitamins are well regarded for stress
situations, such as shelter living, whether they have any other
benefits or not.
Radio
Emergency Radio
Setup
A number of moderately priced flashlights and radios with integral hand
cranked generators are out on the market for campers and boaters. They
also make
an excellent item for shelter users. Most modern radios with short
antennas will probably survive a distant nuclear electromagnetic pulse
event, especially battery powered VHF FM radios. Any TV or electronic item
hooked up to a longer antenna or power cord is probably going to get
destroyed, unless it uses all vacuum tube designs.
An AM band radio or
shortwave option would also be handy. Some TV-audio radios are also a
good choice under many conditions for local fallout and weather
forecasts.
Nuclear electromagnetic pulse is an immediate effect from larger nuclear
weapons which acts to destroy electronic devices at great distances with
a lightning-like zap effect. You can improve the chance that
electronic items will survive a
nuclear electromagnetic pulse by disconnecting power cords, antennas,
keyboards, or other removable wires that could conduct this pulse into
your electronic equipment. Close any extending antennas on portable CB
or FM radios too. Old tube radios and portable VHF radios tend to survive
better than shortwave or transistorized equipment (including
computers). A Faraday shield of conducting metal all around a stored,
backup electronics item such as a GM counter may help it to survive
Nuclear EMP. Many older civil defense radiation detectors use
tubes, and might also survive EMP better as a result.
Lighting
Providing light in most shelters is a tricky issue. Candles use up
oxygen and represent a fire hazard, a major safety issue for most shelters.
But they also give out a lot of heat, and would be most welcome in many
winter or cold weather shelters. A car battery pulled to immobilize a car
or truck could also be used to provide light and power in a small
shelter. An adapter can be used to run most radios. Some low power
LED or bulb lights would be a good way to stretch a battery's limited
power reserves.
Tools
The key tools to discuss here are the ones needed to make a shelter, and to
get or dig out of one in the event of a problem. Items like pry bars,
shovels, rope and tackle, and similar tools could be very useful. Nails
and a hammer could be used in building a temporary lean-to or other shelter.
Radiation Monitoring Instruments
Radiation monitoring instruments fall into two classes. One set of
instruments provides you with the current dosage rate in RADs per hour.
These instruments include survey meters using ionization chambers, and
geiger
counters using GM tubes. Specialty instruments can measure alpha radiation,
neutron doses, and very low level radiation (e.g., scintillators).
The second set of instruments are called dosimeters, and they accumulate
your radiation dosage exposure over time as absorbed RADs or REMs.
Which one should you get? The geiger counter is great at low radiation
levels, but only a few dual tube military/commercial units have a useful
range in a post-attack environment. The military surplus AN/PDR-27 GM
unit has a gamma/beta hand
probe GM tube and internal tiny ceramic GM tube for high radiation levels.
Most civilian uranium prospectors GM counters are too sensitive for high
level monitoring. Even the surplus OCD CD-V717 series Victoreen GM
counters are mainly for low level environments. Incidentally, pack a
supply of baggies and rubber bands along with spare batteries if you buy
a GM counter. Put the baggie over the tube, and rubber band it on, in a
clean environment. Now when the tube gets contaminated, it is easy to
pull off the baggie and decontaminate the tube. Two baggies may be better
than one, but they also reduce beta sensitivity greatly. The latest
solid state detectors are small, lightweight, and battery powered, but
often much more costly than a surplus unit.
The usual high level survey meter (OCD CD-V700 series Victoreen survey
meters) works great for most post-attack environments. The upper range is
usually well into the lethal level of contamination, while the lower end
may overlap the GM counter's upper range. Batteries may be a problem, so
stock up. Be on the lookout for a special, split instrument version that
had a survey chamber on a long cord that you could put outside your
shelter. The idea was you could monitor the actual outside radiation
levels directly, reading the chamber remotely through a long coaxial cable.
You compared that reading with another survey instrument inside your
shelter. Among other things, this comparison gives you your shelter's
effective protection factor, which is only estimated otherwise. It
also tells you the actual radiation levels outside the shelter,
without having to go out and get contaminated in the process to find
this out.
Dosimeters are also usually found in two flavors, low and high ranges.
The low ranges are often very low (milli-REMs), as they are aimed at
civilian
radiation exposure limits. The more useful post-attack dosimeters are
those OCD/military surplus units designed to measure exposures in REMs
(or Roentgens in the earlier units). At the high end, the level hits 600
REMs accumulated doses, equivalent to a 90% fatality rate dosage. At the
lower end, the dosimeters are useful for the low single digit REM levels
likely some months after an attack. Be aware that dosimeters need
specific high-voltage chargers (battery-powered inverters with 100-150
volts or so outputs) to make them work, careful
record-keeping, and sometimes special reader setups. Other units can be
read by the user simply by holding up to the light. Keep them clean to
avoid leakage currents (and higher readings). Usual practice is to
wear multiple dosimeters, typically at least three, so if one is bad,
the other two will indicate correctly.
Sources for new instruments include scientific supply houses (for schools
or labs) and military and commercial nuclear power suppliers. Surplus
units are much cheaper, whether from surplus civil defense or military
sources, but may use hard to find batteries or battery-eating tube filaments.
All of these surplus instruments can also be purchased at EBAY online
auction, weekly,
at http://www.ebay.com - running from $25 US to $50 US and up. Most
EBAY advertisers have no idea what they have acquired, which is usually from
locally
surplused civil defense stocks. Most geiger counters offered for
sale are actually survey meters, so check and bid accordingly. The later
models are much easier to find batteries for than the older units, which
often used rare high voltage batteries.
Masks
Air particles are more of a problem than might appear.
Some post-nuclear attack models suggest that there is
going to be a simply terrific level of air pollution from the thousands
of square miles of fires incident to a nuclear explosion in a city area.
Much of this pollution will be the toxic burnt plastic carcinogens
already familiar to chemists, but on a truly gigantic scale. Tests with
the U.S. Forest Service have involved simulating nuclear firestorms with
square miles worth of cut-down trees. Those studies suggested that while
firestorms were less likely than expected in U.S. cities, the number of
small fires might be much higher than previously expected. So masks may be
a good idea, if only because of the pollution problems you may not have
thought about.
As for radioactive dust particles, some masks do a decent
job at removing many sizes of dust, but not all. Masks for filtering
aerosol paint sprays probably won't be optimal for many radioactive
particles, especially farther downwind. Many of the long-term post attack
survivor deaths are slated as the result of inhaling, ingesting, or wound
uptake of various alpha and beta particle emitting radioisotopes. So here
is another reason for shopping early if you share this concern.
Weapons
The good news is that most of the drug addicts and crazies who are
wandering around in a high radiation zone will be dead long before you leave
your shelter. Most people will be sick and traumatized, and probably
in deep depression after such a nuclear catastrophe. Weapons may be more
of a danger to shelter inhabitants
during the stress and grief of traumatic shelter stays than to outside
threats. Still, I can't make this choice for you, so do what you think best.
If you do elect to get weapons, please take the safety training that goes
with them too.
Seeds
Commercial agriculture is a complex business with many critical inputs
such as petrochemicals, fertilizers, and seeds needed to get the desired
outputs. A breakdown in the economy, in fuel sources, chemicals, or other
inputs could result in widespread followup famines, compounded by
food processing and distribution problems. Against such a possibility,
some folks have elected to pack away various seeds and agricultural tools
and resources needed to take up limited family survival agriculture.
Seeds are a necessary element in any such program, and relatively
compact and cheap for family scale efforts. Buying from agricultural
sources rather than retail packages might provide further savings too. If
you are planning on surviving using this route, consider getting some
experience now by growing a ''victory-garden'' for practice and profit,
or at least for some fresh veggies.
If you don't plan on this route, you
had better plan on stocking up a lot more bulk wheat, a grinding mill,
and other cheap grain calories to last you a few years until agriculture
gets back on its feet after a major nuclear exchange. Both approaches
would also work even better, hoping to survive on local plantings but
ready to stretch out food stocks if needed. Moreover, while bulk grains
provide lots of cheap calories, you will still need and want the benefits
of having fresh vegetables. A relatively small garden plot can provide
a surprising amount of tomatoes, carrots, squash, and other treats.
Special Needs
I haven't hit on any special needs you or your family members may have,
but you need to consider these carefully. For example, you may need lots
of dehydrated milk powder if you will have children with you in your
shelter. An older adult might need several spare pairs of glasses to see
effectively. A hearing aid user might need special spare batteries. You
may need special medications or other supplies. In short, take note of
any special needs and plan and store resources accordingly. Try to
think ahead and anticipate likely needs too. Use the Alpha Strategy to
locate and buy needed items on sale, at thrift stores, or other budget
sources.
Odd-Ball Items
This category is just to catch those items some of us want to add to the
usual civil defense basic listings of shelter items. For example, you
might feel that a compass and fish-hooks and lures and line is a
must-have. By all means, buy it on sale if you can and store it. Keep
your mind open as you visit malls and stores, get catalogs in the mail,
and otherwise encounter interesting items or good buys.
Proactive Medical Care
Consider becoming more proactive with your medical care. For example,
when was the last time you visited your dentist? That's too long!! How
about a medical checkup? Does your medical plan cover it, and if so, why
not benefit from it. At best, you might uncover a condition or illness
early, when treatment is more successful, and possibly even save your
life. At worst, you may lower the cost of treatment by going more
often to the dentist and doctor. To be blunt, you don't want to be
putting off some necessary dental or medical work. Imagine a month long
stay in a shelter with a major toothache! Even worse, with perhaps 90%
fewer doctors and dentists around, you might have to wait weeks or
months to get treatment. Facilities could be lacking, and materials for
operations or dental work may be exhausted early on.
While you are in your doctor or dentist's office, consider
requesting a spare set of your medical records, and that of other
family members, just in case you should need them. Store with family
and other records in your shelter, preferably in a fireproof box where
you might keep your other important records in a very safe place.
You may want to review your vacination history and see if there are any
shots you need to get updated. A tetanus booster may be useful and
worthwhile. Some county health agencies offer free or low-cost shots for
travelers or during flu seasons.
Money
It may seem silly to talk about money at a time like this, but you may
want to have some available (e.g., stock up at any convenient ATM). Money
is a medium of exchange and a store of value. After a single terrorist
burst, having money in hand might be useful during exit from the
contaminated area.
Even after a war, many folks will be unable to make the mental leap that
paper money is worthless and exchange something useful for it. Records
are likely to be so disrupted that you won't be able to get funds
from bank accounts, let alone credit cards. The good news is that the
IRS has preprinted 50 million forms for us to use in requesting delays
in paying our taxes because of nuclear war (no kidding). So you may
find a use for those greenbacks after all.
Real stores of value such as precious metals (e.g., gold coins, silver,
or platinum ingots) or gemstones are obviously more useful. The coins are
better
recognized and don't need to be tested or assayed. Gemstones are for
starting over
and carrying assets in the most compact form possible. But it would be
hard to get change for a diamond or gold coin, so small value coins and
silver coins are recommended by some sources.
Food is too bulky and spoils too easily to serve as money. Trade goods
such as tobacco and lightweight
barter items such as sewing needles may or may not act as money depending
on local needs and circumstances. If I had to
guess on a post-nuclear war universally acceptable form of compact and
lightweight value, besides gold, silver, or diamonds, I would pick pain
killers and antibiotic drugs. This approach has the benefit that these
drugs can be very cheap now (unlike gold or diamonds), may have long
storage lives, and are intrinsically useful too.
Medicine
The need for medicines and medical care is likely to be much higher in
any large-scale post-attack situation. Roughly 90% of all the
M.D.s and especially surgeons in the U.S. reside within the blast target
zones, as do most of the major hospitals. Even a modest sized nuclear
explosion in a U.S. city would generate hundreds of thousands of burn
victims, few of whom could be treated. Since radiation reduces the body's
ability to fight off disease, many endemic diseases will become rampant
in some post-attack scenarios. I will be optimistic and assume no
biological agents are used. Still, the need and value of cleaning
agents and common antiseptics and medicines will be greatly enhanced.
Again, the scope of the problem is outside what we can review in detail
here. My best recommendation would be to get some of the more advanced
civilian medical aid books, such as those used by boaters - the Ship's
Medicine Chest and First Aid at Sea being a good example. These
books show and tell you how to deliver a baby, sew up a puncture wound, and
remove an appendix, as if a doctor isn't or can't be present on the boat.
These first aid at sea books
have much more detailed listings of resources for the isolated group to
acquire, and why. You may need a sympathetic physician to provide access to
some
of the needed or recommended drugs and materials. These books also discuss
many
common minor operations that can be performed, and how to do them, as if
the person were isolated and needed treatment at sea. Red Cross style
training may have some value, but there may not be many post-attack
clinics or hospitals available to provide follow-up treatment or care.
Shelter Emergency Entrance and Egress
Deciding when to enter a shelter may not be easy. In many terrorist or
other nuclear incidents, you simply won't have any warning. Again, this
reality puts a premium on prior shelter identification and preparation.
What if you hear of coup attempts in nuclear states in the former CIS or
similar troubles? It may be time to leave target areas and seek or setup a
shelter site if you don't already have one.
You might consider sleeping in the shelter during periods of high tension,
rather than discover your power is out and you just absorbed a fatal dose
in your sleep. During the day (or night), consider leaving radios or TVs
on. I am not suggesting that the US authorities will actually manage to get
out a warning, although they might. But the EMP from other nearby hits may
provide very limited warning and confirmation of a possible nuclear
exchange. You may hear a series of lightning like crashes on audio and
static on TV screens, and may lose carriers from direct (non-cable)
stations. Power may go out, leaving only battery powered radios or TVs
sounding their EMP static burst alarms, each one registering the death of a
city or military base. Get indoors or inside immediately, away from
windows and
glass and below ground or into the shelter area immediately if you can.
During a period of high tension, you can also make such
local preparations as last minute food re-stocks, gas tank filling, ATM
withdrawals, and so on. Depending on your distance from prime targets,
you may want to close and tape curtains, remove dark drapes, and remove
flammable materials like leaves and boxes from near your home or shelter.
Extra water might be stocked in buckets or containers to use for fighting
fires if you are in fire starting range (30 miles) of a nuclear thermal
pulse.
You may want to build or extend a layer of dirt around your basement
shelter, or prepare and move bags of dirt into exposed basement window
sills, if this fits your shelter situation. If you are over 30 miles
from a possible target, you will have more time leeway. The more tasks
you can complete now that might require outside work to prepare your
shelter, the better.
Assuming you have a radiation detector (GM counter), you can
directly determine the time when fallout first begins to arrive (which
time should be carefully noted, as well as the time of the nearest burst(s).
Lacking radiation instruments, you might get word from local emergency
broadcast radio
sources. The farther you are from the target site, the longer it will
take the winds to carry fallout to your area. Near the
burst site, you may be able to directly see
fallout coming out of the sky as a fine dust, grit, or ash. Try to avoid
exposure to this fallout dust (particularly breathing it in or in burns
or wounds). If you can't, take great care to remove as much of this
fallout material from your skin, hair, clothes, shoes, and person before
entering your shelter area.
When is it reasonable to leave the shelter during the early fallout period,
and for what reasons? The only reasons to leave a shelter during the high
radiation level early fallout period is a life-threatening problem.
Examples would be flooding (drowning), fumes or smoke (can't breathe), and
fires.
Fires are unfortunately quite likely after a nuclear burst due to the
thermal pulse, at great ranges (30 miles or more) from large bursts.
These initial fires will also spread in the direction of prevailing
winds, especially if dry conditions make forest and ground fires possible.
Unless such a fire(s) directly threatened shelter existence, it would be
better to remain in the shelter than absorb a lethal dose of radiation by
fighting the fire.
The scope of this problem will vary widely, depending on location, weapon
size, and combustible materials on-site. Choices of light curtains rather
than dark will probably prevent some fires from starting. In other cases,
blast waves and gas pipe breakage will start many fires. Consider shutting
down gas service in the pre-attack warning period.
Fill all water containers and sinks or tubs for fire fighting and
shelter use. Consider shutting off home water service, if not on a well,
so as to retain uncontaminated drinkable water in your home's pipes.
At greater distances,
human errors and panic will probably start most fires. Individuals can do
best by being prepared for fire, meaning tools, water or sand, and fire
fighting
equipment is at hand. Like many nuclear scenario suggestions, this idea
will enhance your regular personal and family safety. Still, it may be
necessary to fight and put out any fires that start in the shelter
structure.
Some shelter studies suggest checking the shelter and its area, after the
burst, and putting out any fires that are encountered before seeking
permanent shelter. If you are facing a single terrorist weapon burst,
that may be good advice. But if you are facing a rogue nuclear submarine
launch, that may not be a good idea. The problem is that many nuclear
weapons are targeted against each target, to ensure redundancy and utter
destruction of the target.
What if you are outdoors fighting fires from the
first burst, and a second or third burst goes off? You are likely to
suffer burns, possible retinal damage, and other effects even 30 or more
miles away. If you must go out, be sure to wear light colored clothing,
cover up all exposed flesh including neck, head, face, hands, wrists, and
ankles (e.g., with light colored tape and layers of cloth). Even if you
try to avoid looking at the likely target site, you may get blinded by a
reflection or involuntary response. At the least, consider the old SAC
nuclear bomber pilot trick of using an eyepatch. That way, when your
first eye gets blinded, your second eye will still be able to see.
Floods are also another valid reason to switch shelters, but much less
likely in most shelters than fire. Heavy air pollution or smoke that renders
air literally
unbreathable might be another rare reason to move in the first 48 hours.
But in general, most other reasons for leaving shelter before 48 hours
have passed are likely to be bad ideas. Thirst and hunger can and should
be withstood for as long as possible. Even a few hours could make a
difference between fatal and near fatal radiation exposure levels. Lack
of bathroom facilities or discomfort from cold or heat would also not be
a valid reason for leaving shelter during this early period.
Once you reach the 48 hour plus point, it is at least conceivable that
you could leave shelter for a short period of time without a fatal or
illness inducing dosage being accumulated. This egress should preferably
not be out
into the open but maybe into a nearby, still somewhat sheltered area of
the same building. Water and possibly food would be the major reasons for
leaving shelter in the 2 day to 7 day period. After that, short trips
might be feasible in many sites. Naturally, if you are in a barely
contaminated zone, you can be more lenient. I am mainly concerned here for
those relatively close to the burst and higher radiation areas.
Conversely, you may want to remain in shelter beyond 2 weeks, even beyond
a month, if your shelter stocks and situation warrants. This practice
will minimize your exposure to external fallout radiation. You will also
minimize your uptake of radioactive particles through inhalation,
ingestion, imbibing, or other uptake mechanisms (e.g., through wounds).
After circa 200 days, much of the fallout would begin to weather and get
complexed and bound with the soil at a non-linear rate. Dosage rates
would fall dramatically below projected models. However, this long stay
option is only available to those who either plan ahead or are very
fortunate in their choice of a sheltering site.
Shelter Transition
Assuming that you are not forced out of your shelter prematurely by an
emergency such as fire or flood, you should maximize the value of your
shelter during the transition period. At first, you will probably only
need or want to make short trips out of the shelter, in light of the
still high radiation levels in most areas. Consider that a civilian
lifetime radiation dose is 5 REMs. Even after two week shelter stay in a
hot zone (initially 1000 RADs/hr), you would get the same 5 REM exposure
in just 5 hours. In such conditions, you would probably be advised to
move quickly out of the highly contaminated area to more distant and much
less contaminated sites. You would wait in shelter as long as possible
in order to minimize your dosage during the exiting time period.
Naturally, I am having to make some assumptions here about the nature of
the post-attack or post-accident environment. If a single low yield atomic
device is detonated by a terrorist, the situation is quite different than
if China's 13 ICBMs targeted at the U.S. are launched in error or by
design. If even a single MIRVed
missile were launched at U.S. cities by a rogue Russian submarine, the
direct effects devastation would kill
millions of people within a few hours. Tens of millions of people would
probably die from downwind radiation doses over the course of weeks and a
few months. The U.S. economy would probably be completely disrupted, much
agricultural activity would cease, and many systems would break down in
the ensuing economic and environmental chaos.
Even people outside the
U.S. would die in surprising numbers, due to the collapse of U.S.
agricultural
exports and various medical and pharmaceutical shortfalls, as well as the
disruption of the collapse of the U.S. economy on the world markets.
Dollars might be worthless overnight, and most export economies would crash
quickly too.
The possibility for developing virulent strains of old as well as new
global pandemics amongst the pools of weakened survivors, in an irradiated
environment, is also a possible source of external deaths.
Above a certain level, the potential for a nuclear winter scenario would
also have global implications. There is also the expected longer term
fallout from the stratosphere on a global scale over months and years,
expected mainly in the Northern Hemisphere.
In short, any U.S. nuclear bursts would be likely to have
unanticipated impacts on people and systems outside the immediate target
zone. Chances are that many of these effects haven't been anticipated
yet, but will only be observed or understood after the fact.
Even if the radiation levels have fallen to 0.1 RADs/hr, that still means
you will accumulate that 5 REM dose in only two days outside (50 hours).
So chances are great that you would want to minimize your exposure to
only an hour or two a day even at these seemingly low levels. The rest of
the time, you would want to be in an effective shelter (pf=0.01 or better).
A delicate question arises over who should go out during these early
higher radiation excursions. The general recommendations are that those
of child bearing age, especially women, should be minimally exposed to
radiation. Children should also be very limited in their exposures, due
to their greater susceptibility to radiation and uptake of radio-isotopes
to form bone (e.g., radio-strontium). So it falls to the older,
post-reproductive members of the community to make the higher-exposure
trips. In part, the older members will also have fewer years to develop
and express many forms of cancer that are likely to kill the younger
members with similar exposures.
One major issue is going to be minimizing contamination of the shelter
and surrounding areas. The usual concept is that you have a clean zone
and a warm zone, leading to the outside hot zone. At each zone to zone
interface, you have a monitoring station to ensure and minimize
contamination. The warm zone might be a lower floor under a middle-floor
apartment
building shelter area, or the first floor above a basement shelter setup.
The vast majority of any fallout radiation would be removed before
crossing from the outside hot zone to the warm zone. This removal would
be by mechanical means, such as brushing off radiactive dirt and dust, or
washing, or cleaning with solvents (e.g., tools), and similar procedures.
Rubber boots and gloves, raincoats or other impenetrable clothing, and
liberal use of tape and plastic might be needed to minimize transferring
fallout from outside into the warm zone. The warm zone would also have
less protection from surface (and roof-top) radiation, so it would be
warmer too in that radiological sense, than the protected shelter area.
Great care has to be used to ensure that fallout contamination doesn't
get into the shelter area or clean zone. As one example, the shoes used
in the warm zone might be exchanged for clean zone shoes, along with
changing clothes. Hair might be cropped short, and each person entering
the clean zone subject to a thorough radiation check using a sensitive
geiger counter. A GM tube with beta reading capability would be useful in
this particular scenario too (as well as for food and water contamination
checks).
After a few months, the rate of radioactivity doesn't decline very fast,
so efforts may be justified to reduce these rates around living areas.
To reduce the radioactivity in and around the clean zone shelter, some
efforts might be made to wash away or remove fallout dust from the shelter
environment. As one example, the external shelter could be washed down with
soapy water. Sandblasting might be needed to remove contamination from
concrete walls. Alternatively, after cleaning a painted wall as much as
possible, it might be re-painted to lock in contamination. You want
to keep radioactive fallout dust from
moving into the clean zone or being inhaled by workers later on as airborne
dust. Dirt and grassy areas would be either turned over in place (for low
contamination) or scrapped off and away from the shelter site. This trick
would remove most of the fallout with the top inch or two of soil far
enough away (100 ft+) so that radiation levels would be much reduced
around and inside the shelter. Dirt can also be piled up over and in front
of this ring of contaminated dirt removed from around the shelter,
serving as extra shielding and keeping radioactive dust from being
blown about.
Unfortunately, it is very easy to contaminate a clean zone or warm zone
with a little carelessness or failure of procedures. Some clean
zone contamination
might be cleaned up, others would simply be too hard to remove. Many
shelters will be in areas where windows were broken by the blast,
weather, or vandals. The lack of windows will readily permit
radioactive fallout dust to blow into the shelter site building. In
such cases, the warm zone may be quite restricted to a minimal
decontamination zone outside the main shelter. Some sources suggest that
if time before fallout deposition permits, that windows and doors in the
house or structure above the basement shelter should be closed or even
taped up. Plastic sheeting could be taped over broken windows. Chimneys
could be blocked as well. The idea is to reduce or prevent fallout from
contaminating the building or areas near the shelter. Fallout is kept
away from the floors above the basement shelter, and later
decontamination is greatly eased and simplified. Again, remember that
some shelter and building air circulation is necessary to support life.
But by
keeping a relatively fallout-clean shelter and home, one could avoid much of
the cumulative
radiation dose during the longer post-attack period. After two years, the
level of contamination would be sufficiently reduced that most areas
could again be used with only minor or moderate restrictions.
Unfortunately, many areas would still be heavily contaminated,
particularly those hot spots in which rain washed major amounts of
radioactive fallout out of the mushroom cloud directly onto the ground
surface. Run-off might also build up in certain areas, thoroughly
contaminating that area too. Some areas near ground zero would also
likely be highly contaminated. Contrary to popular opinion, many of the
radioactive contaminants would still be a threat long after radiation
levels had reached seemingly safe levels. Only a millionth of a gram of
plutonium might be needed on a single dust particle to cause a cancer if
inhaled by a passer-by. Such contamination of both land and food chain
habitat will present a challenge in the post-attack environment. In some
cases, these sites will have to be abandoned for decades, perhaps even
centuries, part of the legacy from the nanoseconds of nuclear detonation.
You can approach preparation for a possible nuclear incident at several
levels. Just reading this page has probably provided a quick introduction
to many issues, some useful ideas, and things to think about. Good! Now
the question is whether you decide to act on what you have learned or
not.
Fortunately, a great deal of the real preparation for a nuclear incident
has direct benefits and dual uses. For example, you increase the food
stocks in your home by buying on sale. See Pugsley's The Alpha
Strategy
book on how this approach can save you up to $2,000+ per year, and more
than pay for all your other preparation efforts to boot! Tobias' popular
book, The Only Investment Guide You Will Ever Need also suggests
that the only way to make money in commodities is to stock up on soap and
food and the like at your grocery store while they are on sale. Doing so
will lock in a
guaranteed 20% and up return on your investment. In short, these books
and ideas will make you much more secure in the event of a wide variety
of problems (riots, bad weather, trucking strikes, nukes..). Best of all,
you can stock up on whatever you need now, save lots of money doing so,
and be ready just in case.
Pugsley's Alpha Strategy - Be Prepared and Save Money Too! |
---|
Pugsley's Alpha Strategy is a simple plan that starts by buying items on sale and building up your stocks of foods and household supplies. Since you are buying on sale, you will save 10%, 15%, 20%, even 25% or more on these items. But you also save time since you have to make fewer trips to the store to buy single items like soap. You just pull from your stocks, and replace at the next sale. You also save on gasoline with fewer trips, and buy less impulse items you don't need too. Over time, you will build up a stash of food and household items, perhaps even tools and clothes and other non-perishables, using the Alpha Strategy. In the event of a crisis, a terrorist attack, or a trucking strike, you can safely stay at home and avoid the riots and crazies running around. You have lots of food stocked away, and most items you might need, all purchased at sale prices. In a nuclear attack scenario, the Alpha Strategy approach means you will be stocked with at least two weeks worth of food and beverages and stocks to survive during a shelter stay. In short, using the Alpha Strategy makes your shelter preparations not only sensible but also profitable as a way of saving money. Even if you never have to take shelter for any reason, you still come out way ahead. And if you do have to take shelter... |
A few gallon bottles of water in the car, in case you get stranded, is a
good idea and low cost option too. Say its for the radiator if it
overheats. The same idea can be advanced
for everything from some tools, to a radio, to batteries, lights, some
food, and blankets. Everything needs to be in a quick grab and carry
bag(s). In short, I am suggesting that if you are a mobile
person, you probably need a mobile set of supplies. Hopefully, you
will never have to find and setup your own shelter, but you will
likely find enough uses for these items to justify setting up your
stash.
How much food you decide to stock in your shelter area becomes mostly an
issue of space and finances. A single visit to a food co-op could provide
a year's worth of cheap calories for surprisingly little money ($100/adult).
While
wheat can be bought in bulk and lasts for years with proper storage, be sure
you have the required hand-mill grinders needed to process it into flour.
Rice, corn, or other grains can also provide a year's worth of calories
very cheaply. Salt, pepper, and other preservatives might be very useful
in a post-attack environment, especially in inland areas. Vitamins are a
cheap supplement compared to securing uncontaminated fruit and produce.
At the other extreme, you can purchase a year's worth of vacuum
dehydrated prepared meals such as steaks, swedish meatballs, and dried
fruits from various mountaineering and other suppliers. This option is
the most compact and tasty, but also most expensive approach. A careful
search of most food stores will let you identify and stock up on lots of
dehydrated foods (like pasta, cereals) that cost a lot less per meal than
dehydrated mountaineering packages or freeze-dried steaks. Still, some
days worth of
these meals might be a useful adjunct in your car or shelter stocks, as
lightweight foods during a possible exit from contaminated areas.
For most of us, the best and most economical approach is to use the Alpha
Strategy to build up our stock of normal foods to at least 2 weeks,
and preferably more like 2 months of staples or more. Store your excess
cans, pasta bags, and the like in the shelter area, and transfer as
needed to the kitchen. Stock and store as much cheap rice or other
staples in the shelter area as you can. Label food stocks by date on the
container(s), and rotate to use as much as you can in normal use. You can
always donate the still-good excess food to many soup kitchens or the
like if you can't use it all in the usual storage period.
Once you get such a shelter supplies listing started, you will find most
of the items have dual or multiple uses. Candles are handy if you have a
power outage, as are flashlights. Rechargeable batteries save money, and
let you have an extra few sets on charge ready to go at all times. A
shortwave radio can be fun and educational. A high efficiency LED light from
Radio Shack can be adapted to use with a surplus or older car battery
kept on charge near the shelter. You don't need anywhere near the
discharge amps needed to start a car for your surplus battery, so a worn
out or cheap car or gel cell battery (preferred) will work fine.
A stock of tools and cleaning supplies is hardly a major expense, and can
have obvious uses in a shelter setup. One point needs to be made,
however, and that is that you need to ensure that you keep these items in
the shelter when not otherwise in use. You may not have time to go find
where you left the shovel in the midst of a nuclear accident or
explosion.
One problem area for shelter stocks consists of fuels and volatile
cleaning supplies. The first point to make is that you should keep your
car's gas tank filled up, especially in troubling political situations.
If you elect to keep gasoline in a storage area, be sure it is secured so
it is really safe and unlikely to be upset, breached, or ignited by any
nuclear thermal pulse or blast effects. An electric generator might be
very useful in the post attack environment, but only if you have the fuel
to run it. My key point is that you need to have ready access to enough
fuel so you don't have to delay to find some gas in a high radiation or
otherwise dangerous environment.
As with weapons, the issue of ammunition stocks is up to you. I
personally doubt if there is going to be a lot of game running around in
any contaminated areas, unless you consider rats in that category ;-). For
$100+ invested in rice, wheat, salt, peas, corn, flour, and the like, you
can meet your caloric needs for a year. So why bother with the doubtful
trapper/hunter approach? Having a year or more stock of food also means
you don't have to go out and interact with possibly unfriendly folks too.
Don't forget that many endemic diseases such as cholera, tuberculosis,
and even plague could infect large numbers of victims whose
immune systems are weakened by radiation sickness and lack of food and
medical care.
Besides the usual OCD (Office of Civil Defense) food, water, blankets,
tools, and so on shelter
stocks, you should also get creative. There won't be many Fuller Brush
salespersons going door to door, so buy those fallout dusting tools now.
Hoses, buckets, brushes, rubber boots and rubberized rainwear will also
be in demand, especially during the initial cleanup period. Plastic
sheeting for windows,
small nails, and related items may be very helpful to repair windows
after post-attack sheet window glass stocks are exhausted.
Clothing may be hard to find, so spare or out of fashion items that fit may
suddenly take on great value. Consider storing old shoes and boots too.
Needles and clothing repair items like scissors and thread and buttons
may be hard to find too. A trip around hardware, grocery, and thift
stores with post-attack needs and uses in mind could turn up other
must-stock items.
Some sources suggest that personal grooming items will also be quickly
snapped up. Frequent washings will be needed to remove fallout
contamination, so soap and cleaning supplies will be quickly used up.
Dentists will be hard to find, so careful flossing and spare toothbrushes
and toothpaste may be a wise investment too. Assuming you are able to use
rechargeable batteries for portable radios and radiation instrument
batteries, how will you recharge them? A solar powered panel might be the
best answer in some areas after battery stocks become depleted.
Gasoline is a necessary item for travel or generating power using a car
to recharge your shelter lights battery. Some inverters will convert 12
volts DC power to a rough (square wave) 115 volts AC power at up to 250
watts or so (see Radio Shack, around $75-125US). A smaller efficient and
portable generator would be ideal, but expensive. You can build a small
generator out of a small gasoline powered engine (i.e., lawnmower engine)
and various car engine parts in the post attack period. Sample designs
and wiring diagrams are in older copies of the ARRL Radio Amateur
Handbooks.
Incidentally, there will probably be lots of gasoline around after a
nuclear attack, people just won't be able to get to it. The problem is
that subsurface gasoline tanks at most service stations require
electrical power to pump the gasoline up out of the ground. No electrical
power means no gasoline pumping, but there could be thousands of gallons
in the tanks. A sufficiently large inverter or small trunk mounted AC
generator could provide the AC power needed to pump all the gasoline you
want.
Lacking power, you might be able to using existing piping to siphon
gas out, or dig down and breach such gasoline storage tanks (Carefully!).
More simply, a standard siphon hand pump and gas containers could
be used to siphon off the unused gasoline from crashed or abandoned
vehicles in the post-attack period. Recall that EMP may disable vehicle
electronics including fuel injector modules over a large area, so there
will be a plethora of non-working but gas-filled cars and trucks around.
These ARRL radio amateur handbooks cover a lot of radio theory that might
also be useful to know in setting up antennas and a shortwave monitoring
station. During a tense world crisis situation, you will find a remarkably
different view of events from listening to foreign news services such as
the BBC and other national services than is available locally (i.e., in
the rather homogenized U.S. TV news services). So a shortwave listening
station might be a useful resource during the pre-attack period, to
highlight mounting tensions and threats and raise your own preparation
levels.
The Internet also supplies lots of non-USA mass medium information
outlets which could also provide an alternative view. A political crisis
or coup in Russia or China might be a good time to take those accumulated
vacation days at someplace outside logical target areas. Those SS-20
missiles are all still ready to go, and nobody seems to be working on any
Russian Year 2000 fixes either.
To return to the issue of generating power, there are a number of books
that describe how to build farm sized power generators from water-wheels
in dams on brooks or streams to classic windmill setups. A more useful
approach in some post-attack situations will be the use of alcohol (not
gasohol) based fuel from fermentation. You will probably want to have a
still anyway, now you can use it to generate power. Many small engines
and even car engines can be modified to run from alcohol fuels. In some
cases, it just takes adjusting the engine and drilling some larger
openings to the carburetor (circa 40% larger). Again, a variety of books
cover this conversion approach. You might not want to make these
modifications today, but it might be useful to get this information and
the necessary drill bits (and spares) and tools to make it work.
Speaking of skills and stills, you might want to take advantage of the
liberal U.S. laws allowing you to brew your own beer and make your own wine.
You can buy all the supplies needed for a still, without setting one up.
During the colonization of the U.S. midwest, hard alcohol was the means
of exporting the bulky midwestern crops in a compact and high value form
- moonshine! Processes involving filtering and distilling are likely to
reduce contamination as well, and might revive this old American
tradition for an unforeseen new set of reasons. Similarly, Brazilian
farmers reacted to the oil price shocks by switching to alcohol based
farm produced fuels rather than gasoline.
Similarly, you can identify food preservation as a major future problem
in a post-attack environment. Some items like a used pressure cooker and
bell jars can be purchased inexpensively from thrift stores. Rubber rings
are easy to buy today. Other supplies like sugar, salt, and other
preservatives can also be secured and added to shelter stocks.
In short, look for ways to stock up or retain items that will be useful
in a post-attack world. The Alpha Strategy approach can justify
some of these items as a money-saving commodities investment. Other
items can be bought second-hand, at garage sales, and simply put away
with the hope they will never be needed. In some cases you can just
stock up by buying extra items rather than running to the store for
every little item you need.
In short, you can probably justify most of your shelter stocking and
preparation for dual use needs, and save money doing so using Pugsley's
Alpha Strategy approach. The main single use items include
medical resources and specialty
items such as radiation monitoring instruments. Starting with the radiation
instruments, the good news is that the costs are relatively low. For
under $100, you can probably buy a couple of radiation survey meters and
a geiger counter and still have funds for batteries. You will probably
save this much money in just the first month using the Alpha
Strategy.
You may feel prepared with standard first aid courses and a well stocked
medical chest, at least until you have read some of these boating first
aid manuals. Lots of the recommended items have unlimited shelf life,
such as bandages, and so are a one shot expense. Whether you elect to go
whole-hog and get the full set depends on your interests and budget.
Now you can also speculate about what items would be most in demand in a
post-attack environment. For example, salt, pepper, and spices might
again be
worth their weight in gold as during the middle ages, due to the breakup
in transportation and refrigeration. Fragile lighting bulbs for
incandescent or fluorescent fixtures might be rare too. Plastic might
have to replace window glass? A spare geiger counter might be worth more
than a house? A zeolite water purification cartridge setup might be
worth more than a car?
Another area to consider is picking up knowledge and skills which might
be useful in the post-attack environment. For example, you
might
take one or more of the Red Cross style first aid or CPR courses. They
also have courses on fire-fighting and rescue. A ham radio class might
open up a fun hobby, as well as aid in setting up radios for monitoring
and communication. How about an engine repair course, in case you get
stranded on the road? Don't forget to stock up with the fan belts, tools,
and other items you might need in an emergency - as during an exit from
the contaminated area. A cooking class or food canning course offered
by a local college or adult education source could be useful too. Even a
gardening class or two could be fun, and
would open up a profitable and very useful post-attack environment skill.
Finally, don't forget to get more of what you are getting now - knowledge about the post-attack environment and how to survive in it. Hopefully, you will never have to face any of the nuclear attack scenarios listed below. But you might want to add some of the major books on the subject to your shelter library. The Effects of Nuclear Weapons is one such classic. There are numerous civil defense publications, some now posted on the WWW, which would also be useful. Pages such as this one might be handy references too. In short, you should also stock up with books and knowledge that you can tap in the post-attack environment to help ease the return to a normal life existence.
Single 10kt Terrorist Burst
This scenario assumes that a terrorist gets a small 10 kiloton fission
device, similar in yield to the ones used by the U.S. on Hiroshima and
Nagasaki. The optimum
site for such a single device to do the maximum damage has been suggested
to be St. Louis, Missouri. These studies noted that such a hit would likely
disrupt
or destroy the greater U.S. economy. The reason is that St. Louis is the
centrally located city to which checks are mailed daily to reconcile U.S.
bank transfers and exchanges. So even a small weapon would destroy this
facility, and these unique and irreplaceable machines with it. In short
order, the U.S. economy crashes as it is impossible to process the
required volume of checks by hand.
The smaller device size may minimize the area contaminated and enhance
the ability of folks to exit this area speedily for other areas. Shelter
might or would still be useful, and care about ingesting or inhaling
fallout particles in the contaminated area should be a major long-term
health concern.
100kt to 1,000 kt Terrorist Device
An enhanced fission or fusion device raises all the problems of taking
extended
shelter. The larger range of thermal, EMP, and blast effects is clearly a
bigger problem the larger the device gets. The contaminated area would be
much greater. If only a single
device were used, then much of the U.S. would be uncontaminated. Again,
the optimal strategy might be taking shelter for 2 to 4 weeks or more as
desired or possible, then a quick exit to uncontaminated areas.
Low Numbers of Weapons in the 100kt to 1,000kt Range
A single
MIRVed missile can represent up to a half-dozen or more warheads (60kt
up). If targeted against different cities or targets, such an attack could
cause millions of immediate and short-term deaths (6 to 15 million or
more). Millions more would die of the long-term side effects, chiefly from
cancers and other radio-isotope uptake related diseases. Millions would
also be burnt and injured. Local or national government could be destroyed
or disrupted (e.g., Washington DC a target city). Fires might range over
huge areas, including highly polluted plumes from burning chemical
factories and city areas as well as forests.
While uncontaminated areas might exist, getting there in the ensuing
chaos could be quite hazardous. Staying in a shelter area for a prolonged
time might be a strategy for avoiding threats from individuals or ad hoc
groups. I suspect many local or state governments will employ extreme
means to draft a workforce in an effort to restart a dead economy.
The optimal attack strategy for a single MIRVed missile is to target all
of the major refinery complexes in the U.S. (7 to 10).
This attack pattern would again destroy the U.S. economy at one of its
weakest point, our dependence on large fossil fuel resources. Our
agriculture is heavily dependent on energy resources, as is our industry
and our commerce. Even if the number of dead killed directly is relatively
less in such an attack, the long-term disruption could kill many more
millions from famine and economic disruption (e.g., pharmaceuticals
depend on petrochemicals).
SLBM Submarine Full Missile Launch
What if a coup faction gains control of a nuclear missile launching
submarine? A single submarine can launch not just handfuls but dozens and
hundreds of warheads at U.S. targets. Such an attack pattern is suggested
by the header animated GIF courtesy of Greg Walker. The entire U.S. would
likely be involved, leaving few if any uncontaminated areas. Assuming a
city based target list is used (versus say a counter-force strike), up to
half the U.S. population would be dead or dying in the first few weeks.
Such an attack pattern is obviously unprecedented, so we may be in for
some surprises. Carl Sagan and colleagues discovered and popularized the
issues of Nuclear Winter based on studies of MARS and other
sources. These studies suggest that enough dust and smoke could be
injected into the upper atmosphere that the earth's albedo would change.
More sunlight would be reflected off the dust, and the earth would chill.
Studies of large volcanic eruptions has confirmed some of these model
predictions at the small scale end. The possibility exists that weather
in the Northern Hemisphere could be disrupted for 5 months or more, by
some estimates up to two years plus. This disruption would involve
unseasonably cold weather during the summer crop growing season, as just
one prediction, and terribly cold winters.
All-out Exchange
Unfortunately, there are tens of thousands of nuclear weapons in various
hands around the globe. An all-out exchange could involve tens of
thousands or more of these devices. Systems fail, and such an
exchange could conceivably be started by accident and an enraged
response. Thousands of formerly Soviet warheads are still atop
missiles with U.S. targets, according to many reports. Computer errors as
mundane as the Year-2000 problem might accidentally trigger such an
exchange in many scenarios.
An all-out exchange might be precipitated by a clever terrorist or adverse
government with only one or a handful of nuclear weapons. The scenario
here involves waiting for or precipitating a confrontation between the
U.S. and a nuclear armed adversary (e.g., Russia, China). Wait for a
time of maximum uncertainty and instability. Then the
terrorist group or government detonates the device in Washington D.C. and
other sites calculated to appear as a close-in submarine launched attack.
The U.S. would presumably respond with an all-out exchange in the hopes
of destroying counterforce targets before they could also launch. This
U.S. surprise
attack in turn precipitates an equally devastating counter-attack against
the U.S.
The interesting feature of this scenario is that the massive attack
upon and destruction of the U.S. could be a side-effect of the intended
and desired attack against their main threat and larger nuclear armed
neighbor such as Russia or China. The result would effectively remove the
neighboring state as a major power, and the U.S. as the world's superpower.
Summary
Naturally, we have only looked at a few possible scenarios here out of
thousands. Different scenarios have different implications for
post-attack activities. A single or handful of nuclear weapons strike
might suggest leaving for an uncontaminated area and possible survival of
the U.S. Larger numbers of weapons make uncontaminated areas unlikely and
harder to find, and almost ensure the disruption and destruction of the
U.S. economically and physically.
One point remains to be re-emphasized concerning the unknown but
potentially disruptive environmental effects of nuclear warfare. If the
nuclear winter scenario comes to pass, then food stocks will be a
critical issue. Instead of 2 weeks worth of food, you might need 2
years worth of food!! In such a circumstance, having stocked up on
additional cheap bulk grains such as rice or wheat could provide the
means for survival.
Nuclear EMP
Having cited nuclear EMP as a cause for destroying electronic systems, we
can also suggest a scenario in which one or more nuclear weapons are used
to create a huge nuclear EMP effect. Most of the U.S. could be crippled
by a single nuclear burst of sufficient size in low orbit (circa 100
miles) over the near center of the mainland U.S. landmass. Usually,
several devices are used over each coast in such scenarios to guarantee
maximum effect over the dense coastal population centers. A certain
number of people would receive fatal shocks from such nuclear EMP, and
some pacemaker and other electronic medical device hookups would fail
with fatal results. Most fatalities would be caused by planes falling out
of the sky or other vehicle crashes and hospital operating room failures.
But overall casualties would be very light for a nuclear war, in human
terms.
However, the electronic systems of modern commerce (and warfare) would be
largely knocked out by the nuclear EMP pulse. This N-EMP pulse is very
similar to lightning in its effects on electronics, but has a much
shorter rise time (circa nanoseconds) and higher peak energy level. The
result is a devastating pulse or zap of electricity that readily destroys
sensitive semiconductor junctions in most electronic devices. Any long
conductor (over a few inches) such as antennas, power cords, keyboard
cables, modem lines, telephone lines, and the like will help couple
enough energy into the system to destroy it.
Nuclear EMP is another example of an unexpected side effect of nuclear
weapons, like nuclear winter, which wasn't discovered until larger
weapons and transistorized equipment were used. Earlier tests had used
tube radio equipment, which is much less sensitive to the destructive
effects of nuclear EMP (because they lack silicon junctions and have
large energy absorbing plates and cathodes).
In civil defense and
military applications, special high speed gas diodes are used to
protect against nuclear EMP. Some of today's high speed MOV and
clamping diodes may be fast enough to protect or bypass some or all of
the nuclear EMP where relatively little energy is coupled into the
circuit. Examples would include VHF portable radios with short
antennas, powered by batteries, such as portable police radios and
portable FM/AM stereos using speakers (not headphones with wires).
What can you do to minimize the destruction from such an EMP
blast on electronic items in your shelter? The simplest starting place is
to unplug critical items from power cords and wires when not needed.
Actually, this is another good idea in general, as lighting strikes
against a house or nearby telephone pole can use these same wires to get
into and destroy your electronic items. Fortunately, you can buy very
cheap battery powered radios with a variety of shortwave, time clock,
weather, police and fire, and TV audio bands for under $30US at Radio
Shack and similar stores.
You can also make a Faraday shield cage. A Faraday shield is a continuous
metallic conducting cage around your electronics items which prevents
nuclear EMP or lightning like pulses from getting conducted or coupled
into the inside of the cage. The cage can be from highly conductive
single sheets of copper or even fine copper screening. Even a homemade
Faraday cage would probably protect electronic items enclosed inside
which would otherwise be destroyed in many nuclear EMP scenarios.
This effect is why it is best to stay inside a car if caught out on the
road in a lightning storm. If lightning hits, it will flow around you
and not enter the inside of the car significantly, thanks to the Faraday
shielding effect of the metallic car body.
As an aside, the nuclear EMP issue is why some people buy and stock both
transistorized and tube based electronics gear in their shelter. Tube
based electronics would be much more likely to survive a nuclear EMP
event, and spare tubes (hint) would be easily swapped out quickly. The
smaller transistorized gear is placed within an enclosed metal box, with
all wiring disconnected, and carefully sealed up. Spare GM counters,
dosimeter chargers, radios, and other electronics are stored as backups
so if the ones in the shelter get destroyed by EMP, they can be unpacked
and used later. Many tube based survey meters, GM counters, and earlier
instruments require heavy tube filament batteries, but provide an extra
degree of EMP protection over their later solid state brethren.
Besides the direct, prompt nuclear EMP, there is also a lesser known
secondary effect that has longer duration. This effect is known as
magnetohydrodynamic EMP, and is related to the effects of moving charges
and fields in longer conductors. In this case, we are talking about even
buried cabling and wiring. While fiber optics is impervious to direct EMP
effects, it is jacketed and strung with metal cabling to enable pulling
it off the reels and into conduits and underground piping. Depending on
whether single mode or multimode fiber optic cabling is used, electronic
repeaters are needed every ten to fifty miles or so to regenerate the
pulses for the next cable segment. Some people believe that these fiber
optic systems will operate through EMP events. Unless all the elements of
these systems have been designed and protected, particularly the
electronics and their integral power sources, this belief is probably
wrong. In other words, these networks will fail when their electronics fail.
If you take this localized nuclear EMP effect, and multiply by all the
electronics and solid state equipment like computers and faxes and phones
and television studios in the nation, you can see why losing all
electronics could be a disaster. Electronic commerce would be ended
instantly. Financial markets could not even open to register their own
crashes. Banks couldn't calculate balances, let alone pay bills
electronically. In short, the U.S. economy would likely be destroyed,
along with the command and control infrastructure needed to wage
effective warfare and maintain government operations. So a nuclear EMP
component at the start or during the early part of any nuclear exchange
might part of other scenarios, as well as a stand-alone attack option.
Reactor Accidents
As scary as a thermonuclear bomb might be, it has only a rather limited
amount of fissionable materials which form the bulk of the radioactive
contamination. Instead of kilograms of such material, the average power
reactor has tons of radioactive wastes mixed in with its fissionable fuel
(uranium or plutonium usually). A large reactor might have enough
fissionable material to represent 10, 20, 50, or more critical masses. Even
worse, most of the short lived
isotopes have decayed. Much of what is left is much longer lived than
the average for a nuclear explosion's radioactive debris. In other words,
none of the decay rules for a nuclear burst (based on t ^ -1.2 curves)
will probably hold for a reactor incident. The fallout would likely be
very slow to decay and represent a major longterm and continuing hazard.
In most reactors, an accident or terrorist explosion would release lots
of radioactivity in the form of radioactive iodine, chiefly in a
sublimated or gaseous form. This radio-iodine gas would spread quickly in
the air, and be taken up readily from the air into the food chain. One
possible concentrated source would be milk from cows raised in exposed
pastures. You could simply breathe in air with gaseous radio-iodine, and
receive an internal dose that way. By contrast, fallout is not a gas but
a dust sized particle, and can be kept out of shelters and homes.
The threat from radio-iodine uptake is a major reason to buy and use iodine
tablets prior to and during a reactor accident or other nuclear incident
scenario. This non-radioactive iodine will help prevent the body from
taking up much of the radioactive form, preventing thyroid cancers and
other medical problems. Since iodine concentrates in the thyroid
gland, and is most actively taken up in growing children, this threat
from radio-iodine is especially dangerous to children. Similarly, we
would recommend calcium tablets (with vitamin D or other uptake
enhancers) to help reduce the uptake of radioactive strontium and
cesium, which are often found in fallout or reactor contamination.
Unfortunately, we have already seen some of the realities from such a
reactor explosion via the Chernobyl reactor accident. Large areas have
been contaminated and are unsafe to live in or even drive through.
Thousands have been exposed to levels of radiation that suggests a
destiny ending in a death due to cancers contracted in this incident.
While only a handful died directly of radiation at or near the reactor,
the areas impacted reached a global scale, particularly nearby European
neighbors. Produce and milk had to be destroyed due to contamination.
A terrorist who explodes a smaller nuclear device in a reactor might not
get a large sympathetic fissioning of the reactor components, although
some might be possible, depending on distance and neutron flux levels.
But it is likely that the containment domes (if any) would be breached
and a much higher level of contamination would be dispersed. Moreover,
unlike the usual nuclear burst scenarios, this approach would yield a
much higher level of contamination and much slower drop in radiation
levels with time.
Unfortunately, a nuclear terrorist really doesn't even need a bomb.
Literally thousands of fuel rods from power and military reactors are
sitting around in ponds of cooling water, waiting to be recycled.
Naturally, they aren't anywhere near as well guarded as nuclear weapons.
Remember that there may be a lot of plutonium in some of these fuel rod
designs, as well as induced in uranium fuel from neutron capture. The
fuel rod will also have lots of longer lived radioactive waste products
in it, equal to not just one but perhaps a dozen or more typical nuclear
bombs. In short, a terrorist could simply steal a nuclear fuel rod, pop
it in acids
to turn it into a highly radioactive slurry, and convert it into dust or
dilute it into a highly radioactive fluid. Now simply arrange for it to be
used to contaminate the desired target city. A fire fighting or crop
dusting plane would be very effective, but a mosquito spraying truck or
other approach would work well.
The result would be thousands of deaths
in the short-term from ingested and inhaled radioactive particles causing
instant cancers and radiation sores in the skin, intestines, and lungs.
Many others would get fatal radiation doses before authorities would
realize that the city had been contaminated. Contamination would be
widely spread as radioactive dust transported by travel to the suburbs
and more distant communities. Such a city site would be highly
contaminated at a level that it would have to largely be abandoned or
destroyed. Even the dirt would have to be buried as radioactive waste at
special sites.
One of the lessons from Chernobyl is that the authorities are hesitant
to tell unpleasant truths to people, even if they are being poisoned and
killed by withholding such information. Moreover, even the Soviet Union
did not have an active and reliable radiation monitoring system in place
just outside the borders of its own nuclear plants, or even in major
cities such as Kiev. The post-cold war situation in the U.S. is hopefully
much better, as far as nuclear monitoring stations goes. But it is not
certain that such information could or would get released to the public
promptly. If you live near any U.S. nuclear plant, you probably can
research up a listing of events in which moderate amounts of
radioactivity were released due to various accidents. Most of these
incidents are also characterized by a lack of public disclosure or
forewarning. While they are spin doctoring, you will need doctoring. ;-)
In short, you may have to setup your own early warning
system. Relatively cheap ($100 - $150 US) nuclear radiation detectors
(gamma/beta) exist which have a squelch mode of operation. As long as the
level is below what you have set, no alarm goes off. But if your preset
level is exceeded, the alarm goes off. Simple. You set the alarm level
just above your usual background radiation and then add a little bit. If
an accident or radioactive spill happens on a nearby highway, or if
radiation is detected, the device sounds off and wakes you up to get into
shelter. These detectors can run a long time off of rechargeable
batteries, or off of your power line. Some units automatically switch
to batteries if on line power is lost, but beep to warn you of this
problem. With this setup, you are not dependent on outside warnings
or warning systems that may not even exist anymore in your area.
Salt Bombs
Salt bombs are nuclear bombs that have been salted or surrounded with a
jacket of selected materials. The most well known material is cobalt, as
in the infamous cobalt bombs of the Dr. Strangelove doomsday
bombs. The idea is simply to make use of neutrons released by the nuclear
explosion. Usually, some large fraction of neutrons are lost or wasted,
and interact with random atoms in the surroundings. If the bomb is burst
in the air, the amount of material is low and induced radioactivity low
too. If the bomb is at ground level, much more material is subject to
getting hit by neutrons and turned into radioactive isotopes.
The bomb itself can be made of relatively minimal amounts of fissionable
materials, be built of materials with low induced radioactivity
potential, and get most of its energy from fusion rather than dirty
fission processes. Such weapons are called ''clean'' nuclear weapons, as
they produce relatively little fallout or radioactivity. By contrast, you
can also build a ''dirty'' bomb which gets a lot of its energy from
fission, and also has a layer of cobalt or other material that can be
turned into a deadly radioactive gamma emitter. The result is a much
higher level of gamma radiation than expected near the bomb site.
Radio-cobalt has a very penetrating and powerful gamma ray decay, and
takes not days or weeks but decades to reduce significantly in radioactivity.
So why aren't cobalt bombs more popular with smaller nuclear states who
want the most bang, so to speak, for the buck? The problem with cobalt-60 is
that it gets
into the stratosphere and ultimately some of it may end up in the enemy
country's own biosphere. A better approach is to select a shorter-lived
but very intense gamma emitting isotope. For a nuclear terrorist with
a limited budget, plain old salt or sodium chloride may suffice. Both
sodium and chlorine can be rendered radioactive, and are cheap and easy
to procure in even large quantities, unlike say, a ton of cobalt dust.
The resulting gamma radioactivity is very intense, and greatly expands
the areas exposed to thousands and even tens of thousands of RADs. Only
those in excellent shelters will survive such an attack. Yet the
half-life is short enough that it won't come out of the stratosphere to
poison the attacking country (in any large quantity).
A related dirty trick is to pick the right sequence and timing for the
multiple bombs usually targeted at each target. To ensure against any
major target or city surviving unscathed, a large number of weapons are
targeted at each site. These weapons are on multiple missiles, so failure
of one won't mean all its targets escape destruction. They are timed to
arrive at different times, so explosion of one won't prevent the
explosion of its fraternity brothers (hence, weapons fratricide - pun
intended). Moreover, some weapons would be targeted as ground-bursts, in
order to maximally destroy the localized target area and generate
fallout. The backup weapon would usually be targeted as an air-burst, in
order to get maximum thermal pulse damage to exposed humans and induce
fires over as large an area as possible.
The trick is to combine the two
explosions in a precise sequence, so the ground burst goes off, then the
air burst above it. The air burst blast wave interacts with the rising
fireball of the ground burst. The result is that much less radioactive
fallout is blown into the stratosphere, so it doesn't eventually land on
the attacking country or its allies. But a lot more of the fallout is
blown back down and onto the target site and its surroundings. Blast wind
speeds are hundreds of miles an hour near the starting point, rather than
the ten or fifteen miles an hour of high altitude winds with a normal
nuclear cloud. The largest amount of radiation is actually released in
the first few seconds and minutes of the explosion, but high in the
radioactive cloud away from the human targets. This trick pushes the
fallout down onto the target much sooner, and concentrates it in a
smaller area around the city or target site. The result is to greatly
increase the amount of radiactive contamination of the target site. Even
people in excellent shelters near the target site would possibly get a
lethal dose due to this early and highly radioactive fallout dosages.
Summary
We have just touched the surface of some possible or even improbable
attack scenarios here. But as you can see, there are lots of ways for an
attacker to maximize the amount of bang, burns, and radiation they get
out of their attacks. Even the usual nuclear terrorist scenarios where a
few weapons are available or used could be devastating to the U.S. as an
economy and society. Hopefully, some of the ideas in this article will
help ensure your own survival if the worst does happen.
Government studies that are released to the public usually fail to
provide realistic scenarios and advice. As one example, during the early
1970s we were still being advised that the lack of ham radio (RACES) sets
in many shelters was not a problem. We could simply pick up the telephone
and call these remote shelters, using the radio to contact higher State
and Federal government authorities. This recommendation overlooked the
fact that our telephone central offices are almost invariably located at
or near the center of the urban areas they serve, if only to save on wire
run distances. Moreover, nuclear weapons have a tendency to knock down
poles carrying telephone wires. EMP was not even considered in most of
these studies, despite the widespread use of transistorized radio sets.
In short, a major requirement was essentially unaddressed because there
was no way to come up with a workable solution. We had to pretend that we
would just pick up the phone and call around.
A major study was released to describe how the post-attack situation
would look, based on various civil defense estimates. A small West
Virginia town was chosen for the scenario. Only distant places were hit,
so there were no direct effects from blast or thermal pulse. At first,
there were hardly any changes. Gradually, medicines dried up, with
diabetics and others on medication being the first to go. Advanced
medical care from the city was no longer an option, with the city gone.
An influx of burned and injured folks put a strain on the system to feed
and care for them, and these were the lucky survivors of the holocaust
and radiation effects. Refugees had to be housed in other people's homes
(a piece of current civil defense doctrine). Many items quickly ran out
from stores. Fuel was unobtainable. Money could not be used to buy things
because people wouldn't sell, not knowing when they could buy a replacement.
Food became scarcer. The attack's timing meant a harvest was lost. By
means not explained, a delivery of food from distant Michigan grain
storage silos somehow managed to reach this small town just in time to
prevent famine and end the scenario on a positive note. The problems of
transport over such distances, with most
roads going through city centers that no longer existed, were brushed
aside. Fuel and security (theft en route) issues were also minimized. Today,
this rosy
scenario is not such an issue, since our government has cut out these
food and grain storage facilities as part of the budget balancing measures.
Our national food-stocks are relatively much lower today than in the
past, and we are living from harvest to harvest with minimal reserves.
What government preparations have been made are at two levels. For the
top of the civilian governmental structure, we have an effective and
redundant system of shelter sites that are well stocked (and armed). For
the rest of us, we have lots of paperwork and plans. I cited the IRS
having 50 million forms for requesting delays to pay taxes due to nuclear
war preprinted and stored (mostly in cities). The post office has similar
piles of pre-printed change of address or notification of death forms in
storage. But paperwork isn't going to be very helpful in most large scale
nuclear attack scenarios.
The FEMA plans for a nuclear attack are to assume that we have sufficient
warning to be able to mobilize our population out of the target areas
into the surrounding hinterlands. Think about that. Even the pretense of
identifying city and suburban shelters and stocking them with stale food
crackers has been
abandoned. Similarly, stocks of radiation monitoring instruments and
other post-attack necessities have been surplused or destroyed.
In the
event of a successful out-migration from the target area, the problem
that predominates is the difficulty of housing and feeding all these
people whether there is an attack or not. Recall that the hinterlands
don't have enough food stocks to feed the additional population of a city
for long. The trucks carrying food into the city for daily use can't be
effectively rerouted to where they are needed in the dispersed
communities. So you don't or can't disperse unless you are sure an attack
is likely, and by then, an attack is probably in progress. In the
meantime, communities are required to draw up plans on how they will
house and feed large numbers of refugees from the city targets.
Nearly everyone agrees these plans are useless, but the paperwork is
required federal government busy-work.
The major problem for post-attack planners is how to revive and restart
the U.S. economy, given that so many of the essential resources are
likely to be destroyed in a nuclear war. The most important resource is
trained people, such as air traffic controllers and medical doctors, most
of whom live in lethal target areas. Without these required skills and
people, the economy can't be revived, which is the critical issue
our planners couldn't face.
Most Americans don't know that a series of laws are already voted and
enacted and in place to give the government complete control of all the
country's resources and its people in the event of a crisis as designated
by the President. These laws are draconian in the extreme, providing
absolute power to the surviving national command authority. The goal of
these laws is to provide the legal basis for essentially subjugating the
rights and lives of the surviving people and everybody's property to the
needs and interests of the government, as they see fit. Any and all
property can be seized, laws and personal rights can be arbitrarily set
aside, and
people can be drafted and put to whatever purpose suits the government.
You may object to your government's plans to draft you and send you to
die in a radiation zone trying to reclaim some machinery or decontaminate
a piece of highway. Personally, I doubt that the government could
maintain any semblance of authority under these expected conditions, let
alone enforce its edicts. However, I could be wrong. This threat from an
out of control government seeking total control is yet another reason to
be able to stay in shelter long enough and remotely enough that you can
avoid these death-throws.
Maurading Bandits Scenario
This scenario probably arose out of movies showing motorcycle gangs
taking over remote California towns. The idea is that bad people will
somehow escape Armageddon unscathed, and come out of the cities raping
and pillaging their way across middle America. Authority will be gone,
and anyone with a gun is in charge.
Howard Ruff has suggested a flaw in this argument. What if you take the
number
of people in any nearby city, deduct for the number of expected deaths,
and then distribute them around the surrounding countryside? You get a
fractional number of banditos per square mile, which doesn't seem like
much of a threat.
The problem with Mr. Ruff's analysis is that these banditos can be highly
mobile, at least until the gas runs out. Like the Mongol hordes, they can
cover a lot of miles in a day, ruining everybody's day whom they run
across. You can assume they have superior firepower to the average
non-gun toting citizen, and a willingness to use it with police authority
gone. The main defense would be staying out of their way in shelters, rather
than having to compete with them by foraging for food or fuel.
Personally, I think this scenario is unlikely as a long-term threat.
Gasoline will run out quickly, as will readily raided food stores. Radiation
will weaken and kill off anyone out and about, as will rampant diseases.
Enough people have guns in the U.S. that being a bandito is likely to be a
hazardous occupation. I doubt there would be enough food surpluses to
permit large gangs to stay together as stocks get used up over time.
British Scenario Errors
The British made one of the biggest scenario errors possible. They
decided to make a film to explain to folks what a nuclear war would be
like. The good news from the British viewpoint was that we Yanks got the
major part of the Soviet
nuclear attack on our heads. The bad news was that a few rather large 10
megaton bombs exploded on her Majesty's citys such as Liverpool.
Again, a
warning was assumed, and people moved in forcibly by decree into
unwilling people's houses and property. Food had to be shared with these
refugees from the city. Essential workers had to stay in the city to keep
things like the economy running, until they got vaporized, that is.
The results of the flash and blast were realistically described, leaving
little doubt in most of the viewing British audience that they would be
literally blackened toast in such an event. Various diseases immediately
broke out because of poor sanitation, lack of doctors and medicines, and
poor medical care. Hunger was rampant due to lack of stored supplies.
Some rather gruesome scenes showed mass burials of hundreds of corpses by
bulldozers and burning, with lack of lime to control disease and the
smell being another in a long list of inadequate supplies.
In short, the
movie depiction was sufficiently accurate that it was banned from being
shown so as not to excite the voting public. ;-) You can, however, buy
it in the U.S.
Soviet Scenario Errors
As bad as our scenario errors ofter were, the Soviets had an even worse
time of it. Due to rigid secrecy rules enforced by forced labor and death
penalties, the civil defense apparatus was forced to rely on a Soviet
reprint based entirely on the classic U.S. Effects of Nuclear Weapons
(FM-50). They couldn't be exiled for revealing Soviet secrets in an openly
published American book, after all.
The problem here was that the translators didn't understand
nuclear weapons physics. As an example, a critical table was translated
by reproducing the numbers, but translating the word miles into
kilometers and so on. The result was to give the impression that
American nuclear weapons were considerably less powerful than they
really were
(circa 36% based on area destroyed under this mistranslation).
Later, the
same Russian civil defense manual was re-translated back into English
from the Russian text. The U.S. translators caught the mistranslation,
and footnoted it to highlight these errors. Naturally, the Soviet defense
groups knew that the American weapons were designed to completely destroy
the relatively small and compact Soviet cities.
But it served Soviet war doctrine
purposes to have their own civil defense people believe rather
optimistically that U.S. nuclear weapons were much less damaging than
they really were. The Soviet citizens were to believe that major parts of
their cities would survive our attacks, based on these mis-translated charts.
My Own Scenarios
My own scenarios are likely to be as inaccurate as anybody else's
scenarios, given that we haven't ever experienced a real nuclear war. My
guess is that people will be surprised and shocked by how rapidly and
thoroughly things fall apart. Police who have been in riots in places
like Miami or Watts might be exceptions to this view. They already know
how thin the line is between civilization and mob rule. The rest of us
may soon find out after the bombs go off.
I believe that the biggest characteristic of the post-attack scene will
be APATHY. People won't care; their families will be dead, jobs will be
gone, and reasons for living uncertain. This psychological condition is
common to such a traumatic loss situation. Some will feel guilty they
survived, while others did not. Lack of food and radiation sickness and
medical stresses will probably extend the grip of apathy to most of the
population. Most people who try to restore anything will fail, mainly due
to lack of essential but unavailable resources or human skill sets.
My scenarios all assume that the U.S. economy collapses, adding insult to
injury with disjointed and ineffective productive efforts. A plant will
be reclaimed at the cost of many lives, only to be abandoned due to the
lack of inputs and knowledgeable people to make it work. Farmers will
plant and grow food that will have to be discarded because of high levels
of contamination. If the food is good, they won't have the means to get
it to market. Soviet agriculture often grew plenty of food to feed the
people, it just couldn't get it out of the fields and into enough trains
and silos to reach the people who needed it.
One of the side effects of the black death in Europe was that so many
people died that the survivors became relatively more wealthy. Assuming a
single-submarine launch sized war, perhaps about half the U.S. population
will be dead in a few months.
We might have lots of cars, but no
gas to run them. We could have lots of survivor's houses, but no glass or
heating oil or water service to
make them livable. Electronics galore, all of it needing EMP caused repairs.
The real necessities like medicine and food would be scarcer. Most
professions and jobs would be unneeded, providing no basis for earnings
or wealth. Wealth might be a skill in demand readily traded for needed
goods, or access to resources and services ranging from medical care and
medicines to gasoline and fuels.
Some modelers suggest that external inputs from abroad would enable the
U.S. to regain its economic feet in short order. I suspect that
the collapse of the U.S. economy will lead to parallel collapses among
other European and Asian countries. For one thing, these countries hold
huge stocks of their wealth in the form of trillions of dollars and U.S.
treasury securities, as well as U.S. corporate stocks or bonds. These
dollar based paper assets will be understood to be uncollectable and
worthless assets, leading to mass bankruptcies, following a large scale
nuclear war against the U.S. Moreover, removing U.S. exports of
agricultural produce would likely produce a worldwide famine,
especially if a nuclear winter ensues.
So I see three tiers of deaths in my scenario - the original initial
attack deaths, those who die in a few months due to radiation and
disease, and a set who die when famine and lack of medical supplies
becomes widespread before economic recovery. While a nuclear winter
would really decimate the surviving population, a broadscale
agricultural failure would have similar effects. These Malthusian mechanisms
would reduce the U.S. population down to a simplified carrying capacity
based on limited agricultural inputs (in energy, pesticides, fertilizer etc).
At these lower population densities, the limited agricultural input model
could sustain the population, providing a basis for economic recovery.
Economic production would resume with many simple tool base industries to
make needed simple goods. Glass and metals might be recycled. Medicines
could be
imported using reclaimed wealth (precious metals and gems, perhaps art).
And eventually an economy of sorts would be recovered in the U.S. and the
rest of the world, following the U.S. economic collapse impacts being
worked out.
Time | Dose Rate |
---|---|
1 hr | 1000 rads/hr |
7 hr | 100 rads/hr |
49 hr (2 days) | 10 rads/hr |
14 days (2 wk) | 1 rad/hr |
90 days (14 wk) | 0.1 rad/hr |
Why Immediate Shelter?
This 7/10 rule highlights the critical importance of seeking early
shelter, as will inspection of the fallout dose rate table. The dose rate
in rads/hr drops off greatly in just a few hours and days. You need to be
in an effective shelter during that time to avoid a fatal radiation
dose!
No spreadsheet can claim to model the exact effect of a given nuclear
weapon explosion in the light of the many variables involved, including
wind shear, rain, and weapons composition (fission/fusion ratio..) et. cet.
But this model at least provides a generalized view of the downwind
effects and the benefits of seeking early and effective shelter.
The model also documents the effectiveness of various materials and
structures as a shelter. Effective shelter from fallout is literally dirt
cheap! A basement can cut your exposure tenfold, while two feet of earth
shielding can reduce your dosage to one percent of an unprotected person.
We usually consider a shelter with 3 feet of earth shielding to be ideal.
If you are farther from ground zero, you will have more time to locate and
prepare an effective shelter. The materials below will help you select or
make the best available shelter using materials available to you in an
emergency.
What follows below is a sample printout from running the Excel shelter model
and entering the required 4 input parameters shown in Steps #1 thru #4 below:
[comments added in blue]
Start by entering the 4 requested parameters
Step #1: | 1000 | weapon size (in kilotons 10kt to 10,000kt) | |
Step #2: | 15 | cloud wind speed (miles/hr, at 25,000ft, 15mph nominal, 8 to 45 mph) | |
Step #3: | 100 | shelter site distance downwind from target (miles, 15 to 300+ miles) | |
Step #4: | 0.01 | shelter protection factor (from none=1 to max=.0001) |
R1= RADs at 1 hr and fallout arrival time calculated here
R1 (rads @1hr) | 309 | ||
Miles | 100 | ||
Arrival time (hrs) | 6.333 | ||
cloud radius= | 5 | miles | |
wind speed factor = | 1 | (15 mph=1.0 nominal) |
Dose Rates (RADs/hr) and Accumulated Dose (RADs) shown against time; effects of shelter types on accumulated dose shown on right for specified shelter...
Shelter | Frame House | Apartment Building | Concrete Blockhouse Bldg | Shelter above grade | Underground | ||||||||||||
Dose Rate | Time after burst | Accum Dose | Dose | surface | basement | Top Floors | Lower Floors | 9 inch | 12 inch | 24 in walls | 2 ft dirt | 3 ft dirt | 3 ft dirt | ||||
Rads/hr | (day.) | (hours) | rads (rems) | 0.01 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.15 | 0.075 | 0.014 | 0.05 | 0.014 | 0.003 |
0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
0.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
0.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
0.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
0.0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
0.0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
15.6 | .5day | 12 | 128 | 1 | 102 | 13 | 77 | 102 | 115 | 38 | 77 | 19 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 |
9.6 | 18 | 201 | 2 | 161 | 20 | 121 | 161 | 181 | 60 | 121 | 30 | 15 | 3 | 10 | 3 | 1 | |
6.8 | 1 day | 24 | 250 | 2 | 200 | 25 | 150 | 200 | 225 | 75 | 150 | 37 | 19 | 3 | 12 | 3 | 1 |
4.2 | 36 | 313 | 3 | 251 | 31 | 188 | 251 | 282 | 94 | 188 | 47 | 23 | 4 | 16 | 4 | 1 | |
3.0 | 2 day | 48 | 355 | 4 | 284 | 36 | 213 | 284 | 320 | 107 | 213 | 53 | 27 | 5 | 18 | 5 | 1 |
1.3 | 4 day | 96 | 447 | 4 | 358 | 45 | 268 | 358 | 403 | 134 | 268 | 67 | 34 | 6 | 22 | 6 | 1 |
0.7 | 7 day | 168 | 513 | 5 | 410 | 51 | 308 | 410 | 462 | 154 | 308 | 77 | 38 | 7 | 26 | 7 | 2 |
0.3 | 2 wk | 336 | 585 | 6 | 468 | 58 | 351 | 468 | 526 | 175 | 351 | 88 | 44 | 8 | 29 | 8 | 2 |
0.1 | 1 mo | 720 | 653 | 7 | 522 | 65 | 392 | 522 | 588 | 196 | 392 | 98 | 49 | 9 | 33 | 9 | 2 |
0.1 | 2 mo | 1440 | 706 | 7 | 565 | 71 | 424 | 565 | 636 | 212 | 424 | 106 | 53 | 10 | 35 | 10 | 2 |
0.0 | 6 mo | 4320 | 777 | 8 | 622 | 78 | 466 | 622 | 700 | 233 | 466 | 117 | 58 | 11 | 39 | 11 | 2 |
0.0 | 1 yr | 8760 | 816 | 8 | 652 | 82 | 489 | 652 | 734 | 245 | 489 | 122 | 61 | 11 | 41 | 11 | 2 |
0.0 | 2 yr | 17520 | 848 | 8 | 678 | 85 | 509 | 678 | 763 | 254 | 509 | 127 | 64 | 12 | 42 | 12 | 3 |
0.0 | 50 yr | 438000 | 952 | 10 | 761 | 95 | 571 | 761 | 857 | 286 | 571 | 143 | 71 | 13 | 48 | 13 | 3 |
Calculation Tables - cloud radius and R1 calculated here
Lookup Table: | Calculation Tables | ||||||
Cloud Radius | Selected Distance Unit Rate R1 | ||||||
kilotons | miles | 4.467 | 259.26 | 309 | Rads | ||
10 | 1 | 0.95 | 3000 | 2352.9 | |||
100 | 2 | 1.8 | 1000 | 259.3 | |||
1000 | 5 | 4.5 | 300 | 45.5 | |||
2000 | 7 | 8.9 | 100 | 9.9 | |||
5000 | 15 | 16 | 30 | 2.5 | |||
10000 | 21 | 24 | 10 | 1.2 | |||
100000 | 30 | 30 | 3 | 0.2 | |||
40 | 1 |
Medical Effects Shown Here
Vomiting | Therapy | Deaths | Hospitalization | ||
<100 rems | none | unneeded | none | subclinical, mainly blood changes | |
100-200 rems | infrequent | effective | none | hospitalization generally not required | |
200 rems | common | effective | low | hospitalization recommended | |
300 rems | 100% | effective | low | hospitalization recommended | |
400 rems | 100% | guarded | moderate | hospitalization required | |
500 rems | 100% | guarded | high | hospitalization required | |
600 rems | 100% | palliative | 90% | nearly hopeless | |
1000 rems | 100% | palliative | 100% | hopeless |
Notes: | ||
1 | contact surface burst assumed, t^ -1.2 decay characteristic (-0.9 to -2.0 range) | |
2 | ignores surface geometry, wind shear effects, local rain, hot spots/cold spots | |
3 | beyond 200 days, local weathering effects should reduce actual dose rate | |
4 | model assumes nearly instantaneous deposition at fallout arrival time | |
Actual deposition may take hours, largest error at closest distance to device | ||
5 | local weapons effects ignored - model is aimed at downwind sites outside direct effects | |
6 | rule of 7/10s - for every 7 fold increase in time, you get a 10 fold drop in radiation rate | |
example: 100 rads/hr at 7 hr, 10 rads/hr at 49 hrs (2 days), 1 rad/hr at 14 days | ||
7 | Shielding table provided to show effect of given shelter on reducing accumulated dose | |
8 | Most important - nuclear weapons effects are highly variable, depending on wind etc. | |
Above table can't reflect exact shelter location effects due to many variables involved | ||
9 | Beware: Error correction and catching of wrong, negative, out-of-range values is minimal | |
10 | protection factor of shielding, 0.1 factor means only 1/10th doserate, 0.01 is 1/100th | |
11 | cloud altitude wind speed ranges 8- 45mph, avg 15mph - this is wind speed at cloud ht. | |
12 | Surface wind speeds are not relevant here, clouds moved by winds at 25-45,000+ feet | |
14 | Lifetime recommended worker radiation accumulated dose is 5 rems | |
15 | Rads are units of external (mostly gamma) radiation here, Rems are biological equiv. | |
We are ignoring injested or inhaled radiation particles and dosages in above analysis. |
Summary: |
This model is based on determining a one hour equiv. radiation rate R1@ 1 hr |
Rt radiation rate at time t is approx = R1 x t^ -1.2 (9.147.1 in No.50-3 reference). |
Using this equation, knowing estimated R1, we can derive Rt dose rate at later time t. |
The accumulated dose is approx 5 x R1 x ((ta ^ -0.2) - (tb ^ -0.2)) (9.150.1 in No. 50-3) |
Again, using R1 and later time tb, from initial time ta we can get accumulated doses. |
Ta here is calculated as time of initial fallout arrival, based on radius of mushroom cloud |
and wind speed, e.g., 80 miles away, given 5 mile cloud radius, and 15 mph wind (avg), |
we calculate Ta= (80miles - 5 mile cloud radius)/15 mph = 75 mi/15 mph = 5 hours. |
R1 unit time @1 hr reference dose rate is calculated based on weapons yield and |
formulas provided in table 9.93 of No.50-3 for selected iso-contours - 3000 rads, etc. |
A set of constants and formulae are used to derive width and ground zero width. |
A lookup table is used to select cloud radius based on weapons size from table above. |
Calculation of R1@1hr for shelter at specified distance is based on linear table |
interpolation between standard isocontours (3000 rads, 1000rads..) in calculation area. |
Actual distribution likely higher nearer ground zero, below predicted farther away. |
No.50-3 is the Effects of Nuclear Weapons March 1977 version from Dept. of Army |
List of Shelter Supplies from In Time of Emergency
Publication H-14 Office of Civil Defense - Dept. of Defense
Note: above times are in months for suggested replacement or rotation, in other words, canned nuts would be replaced and used after 12 months or less, whereas hard candy should be cycled or replaced every 18 months or less.
Note: Up to 20 to 60 gallons of water may be in your hot water tank. Water may be in the kitchen in ice cubes, drinks, fruits, and so on. Water can be found in the flush tanks (not bowls) of home toilets. There is water in the pipes of your home. You may be advised to close your main water valve to your house to trap this water in your pipes (otherwise, it could run out back to the street and out a broken pipe). To access this water, open a faucet at the highest point of your home water system (top floor bathroom..). This will let air into the pipe, enabling you to drain water from a lower point in the system (e.g., basement water tank piping).
Note: If you must drink suspicious water - cloudy water from
regular faucets, or muddy water from nearby streams or pond - purify first.
1) strain water through a paper towel or several thicknesses of clean
cloth to remove dirt and fallout particles, if any. Or else let water
settled in a container for 24 hours, letting solid particles sink to the
bottom. A handful of clay in each gallon of water would help this
settling process.
2) boil water for 3 to 5 minutes, or add a water purifying agent to it -
either a) water purifying tables available at drug stores or b) two
percent tincture of iodine or c) liquid chlorine household bleach,
provided the label says it contains hypochlorite as its only active
ingredient. Use 4 water-purifying tablets (size?), or 12 drops of
tincture of iodine, or 8 drops of liquid chlorine bleach. If the water is
cloudy, double these quanties!
Very little radioactive elements are expected to dissolve directly into the drinking water system; most will settle out in the first few days.
Note: Food should be rationed, as needed (except children and pregnant
women), to ensure at least a 2 week shelter stay. Adults can get by on
half normal food in shelter stay.
Note: Sanitation is important, as illnesses and vermin are a possible problem that sanitation can help you to avoid. Creosol or household bleach can be sprinkled into toilet to keep odors and germs down.
From: [email protected] (pyotr filipivich)
Newsgroups: alt.war.nuclear,misc.survivalism
Subject: Re: Nuclear Radiation
Date: 16 Jun 1998
"Andrew D. Knapp" [email protected] writes:
>AB wrote:
>> Are you sure you're in the right group? Nucs are eminently survivable.
>What kind of crack have you been smoking? Nukes survivable? Well perhaps
>if only a -few- went off.... but a global thermonuclear exchange? forget it.
Nukes are survivable. It helps if you are not in the immediate area
when it goes off (having a choice of which side to sit on doesn't really make
a difference), and it helps if you are not going to be waiting for FEMA to
arrive and tell you what to do. By then, it will be a tad on the late side.
Especially if the fallout has arrived before them, which it is likely to do.
>> Read it for entertainment- it's pretty silly science. No possible >> nuclear strategy would produce such effects. Heck, I don't think any >> meteorological (sp? dang) would, either. >You mention that you don't think there would be any meteorological effects
What are the meteorological effects of dust storms? Fallout is a
"local" phenomena", affecting the "immediate" area. (Those are relative
terms, just like a 100 Kt yield is a "small" explosion.) The TAPSS study
had a very crude model of the atmosphere, and presumed a uniform
distribution of dust and smoke before starting the model. Ignored is the
non-uniform distribution of nuclear targets, and the effects of "normal"
precipitation mechanisms to wash the air of particulate. (This model was
used to predict the terrible effects of the Kuwait oil fires. The ones
that didn't happen.)
Fallout is dirt. MOST of it comes down in the local area. What stays
up is less of a problem than what came down in the first 24 hours. Fallout,
like lust, isn't forever; but both of them do color your decision making
process.
>from fallout? That's also a presumption I think on your part. The earths >wind patterns are quite diverse and very powerful at higher altitudes >(perhaps you've heard of the Jet Stream on your local weather program).
The patterns may be diverse, but they are not random. West to east
is the prevailing pattern in the northern hemisphere. Considering that
most of the USSR is north of 40 degrees, and the US is north of 35
degrees, those are the wind patterns to take into consideration. (And
somehow, I don't see fallout levels on the Oregon coast to be as high as
they would be, say east of Cheyenne mountain.)
>If the earth's atmosphere was to become saturated with nuclear fallout, >there would be an extremely widespread effect on all life with witch >contact was made. I would expect few, if any, to survive all out and >enable the human population to regenerate.
First of all, lets try an not answer the question not asked. There
are so many things in the universe that aren't so, that if we were to deny
all the things that weren't we'd never get to the things that are.
Describe the mechanism that the atmosphere would become "saturated" with
radioactive dust. If such a phenomena _were_ to occur, the background count
would be the least of our concerns. I have in mind the "saturation" of the
atmosphere that occurred in Yakima in May of 1989, after Mt St Helens blew.
>> Of course. Huge, teeming amounts of people will survive. First survival >And where might these huge teeming amounts of people be at the time? You >realize of course over 100 U.S. cities were (at one time) the target for >about 10 - 20 warheads each at the peak of the cold war. Redundancy has >always been a hallmark of nuclear policy, especially in USSR. Anyone close >to these cities would inevitably die due to radiation, fallout, burns, >malnutrition, even somewhat minor injuries could cause death since they >would go untreated--after all, there would be no hospitals or ambulances. >EMP would take care of all that.
And the survivors, by the Darwinian process, would be healthier. People
dependent on artificial means of support will have to make due, or do w/o.
That includes every body dependent on Television for distraction from the
real world.
EMP, IMHO, like nukes, is over rated. The high tech toys might go,
but the skill sets in the people would remain. The problem will be,
finding people who are not dependent on high tech and modern machines to
accomplish things. I have been told that the one group of American
ex-pats doing well in the Eastern block are the "old farts". Having been
in the biz before reliable power, fax machines, modems and other modern
inventions, they are not panicked by their lack. (Jeeze, I'm reminded of
my Dad's story of putting a bridge in after spring break-up. After the
engineers said "It can't be done" the wood rats cobbled a crib together of
logs, loaded it with rocks, and skidded it off what was left of the
bridge. The rocks weighed it down, it sank to the bottom, and there was
the mid stream pier for the bridge. Okay, so it wasn't "square" to the
road, but it was up, it would hold the bridge, and the log trucks could
get to the mill.) Point of the stories is to know when precision is
needed, and when "good enough" is more than enough.
>> tip- move away from targets. Second survival tip- be aware for alerts or >> obvious signs an attack is occurring (news/radio/etc). Do not look at >> blast. >> You can survive. >> AB > I wouldn't try it. TIP: Don't use nuclear weapons.
Song of the anti-nuke-phobic "Surrender now, avoid the war rush."
The point of the original post was that nuclear weapons are not magic
death bombs that will kill all life. Some parts of the world aren't
targets (except for any "scorched earth" last round.) - so figuring out
where those places are, and moving there is a first step. Last I heard,
there weren't any targets in South America. (Still, I'd avoid The Usual
Target Areas even there.)
If you plan ahead, it is possible to minimize the impact of a nuclear
war on your lifestyle. Being alive afterwards is a priority. If the only
survivors are rightwing reactionaries, who will speak for the little people?
That's part of the whole thread - plan ahead. It is possible to
minimize the adverse effects of any "disasters". Not to eliminate them,
just minimize them. To avoid floods, don't build on the flood plan. To
avoid blizzards, don't build in areas subject to blizzards. To avoid the
more drastic impacts of a "nuclear exchange", don't build in the vicinity
of likely targets. Surviving Nukes is like surviving any other industrial
calamities. You start with not being in the immediate area when it
happens, and then not rolling over and dying because you were not killed
immediately.
Like was said in Navel Engineering: "Plan Ahead, you will need one someday."
tschus
pyotr
--
pyotr filipivich, AKA Nickolai Petrovich.
Are we the pistons of our fate, or merely the crankshaft of our
existance?
alt.war.nuclear
From: "Ron Cawood" [email protected]
[1] Re: Help With Plans?!?!
Date: Sun Sep 06 08:57:48 CDT 1998
[email protected] wrote
>Hello, I need to know if anyone has any plans (online) on how to >construct a KFM radition meter. Also does anyone have links/plans on how >to build bomb shelters? any other Nuclear Survival info would be >helpful. Thank you very much. > >John B. Costa
John,
Two VERY Good books on Nuclear Survival:
1. Nuclear War Survival Skills (1987 Edition) (Cresson H. Kerny)
2. Life After Doomsday (Bruce D. Clayton, Ph.D)
Web site with info on shelter:
http://www.netoriginals.com/uss/
Best information on shelters and civil defense:
http://www.oism.org/oism/s32p15.htm
alt.war.nuclear
From: "Lori" [email protected]
[1] Nuclear Explosion Data
Date: Sun Sep 06 06:14:02 CDT 1998
http://ernie.bgsu.edu/~dramsey/rifts/adv/nuclear_exp_data.html
alt.war.nuclear
From: "Lori" [email protected]
[1] Effects of Nuclear War!
Date: Sun Sep 06 06:17:05 CDT 1998
http://host.envirolink.org/enviroissues/nuketesting/nukeffct/index.html
alt.war.nuclear
From: "Erich" [email protected]
[1] Re: Nuclear war targets
Date: Wed Sep 23 01:44:21 CDT 1998
Anyone looking for potential target maps, please reply to:
I have maps for each state, based of FEMA targeting data. Each map is large
~4.5MB so limit your request to one state.
Erich,
From Rollei Mailing List:
Date: Tue, 2 May 2000
From: Lucian Chis [email protected]
Subject: Re: [Rollei] OT binos (Zeiss) was: something else
Jan,
Just in case you didn't know, the yellow tint in the CZJ military
binoculars comes from the nuclear flash resistant glass as well as a
contrast enhancer; if you go to your hunting supply store around the
corner, they will gladly sell you a Zeiss (Oberkochen) pair of yellow
colored hunting eyeglasses.
Cheers,
Lucian
....
Date: Tue, 10 Oct 2000
From: "Hopelessly Midwestern" [email protected]
Newsgroups: alt.war.nuclear
Subject: Priority Actions -- When a Nuclear Blast is Eminent
PRIORITY ACTIONS -- WHEN A NUCLEAR BLAST IS EMINENT
Issue #5, July 26, 2000
from the TACDA Preparedness Tip of the Week mailing list
This week's preparedness tip is a continuation of last week's post dealing
with Expedient Sheltering.
As we discussed in the previous article, there are many expedient
facilities where we can seek shelter from a nuclear blast and/or fallout,
without purchasing or constructing our own dedicated personal blast or
fallout shelter which could prove to be a very expensive project.
However, due to the large number of homes equipped with an underground
basement (approximately 1/2 of the homes in the U.S.), we determined that
this would probably be the most likely place for the majority of Americans
to seek shelter.
This weeks preparedness article will focus in on ways to maximize the
effectiveness of a residential basement as an expedient blast/fallout
shelter and will outline the necessary priority actions that you should
take when a nuclear blast is eminent.
************************* PRIORITY ACTIONS *************************
1. Close curtains and turn off gas.
2. Send everyone to the basement
3. Move all furniture, shop benches, equipment and supplies to a central
part of the basement.
4. Instruct people in blast posturing, as follows:
- Sit facing, but not touching, basement wall and place small
children between an adults legs.
- Stress the importance of not leaning against the basement wall, as
the ground shock may cause head injuries. If possible place a shelter,
such as a heavy table, overhead to help shield from falling debris.
- Instruct people to crouch and shelter their heads with their arms
if a flash of light is observed.
5. Organize an emergency team to:
- Break out basement windows, sweeping up glass pieces.
- Draw water in laundry tubs and other containers
- Shut off electric gas, and water utilities
- Prepare to suppress fires and rebuild fallout protection.
- Build radiation shielding overhead with books, sand, food, or other
available objects.
6. Prepare pail or other toilet facility
7. Listen to Emergency Broadcast station on a portable radio
9.[sic] If power fails, immediately take protective posture as
previously
instructed.
For those of you that wish to construct your own dedicated shelter or
would like to learn more about the construction process, TACDA makes two
publications available that deal with this topic. They are entitled "No
Such Thing As Doomsday, and Principles of Protection".
http://www.tacda.org/resources/ptw/
Date: Fri, 13 Oct 2000
From: "Hopelessly Midwestern" [email protected]
Newsgroups: alt.war.nuclear
Subject: Re: EMP
> Where can I find out more about this?
Publication Number: EP 1110-3-2
Title: Engineering and Design - Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) and
Tempest
Protection for Facilities Proponent: CEMP-ET
Publication Date: 31 December 1990
Distribution Restriction Statement: Approved for public release;
distribution is unlimited.
http://www.fas.org/nuke/intro/nuke/emp/toc.htm
From: [email protected] (Xlighter110)
Newsgroups: alt.war.nuclear
Date: 26 Jan 2001
Subject: Nuclear War Target List
I have on my web site free for the downloading and printing a 1985 Nuclear
War Target List covering all 50 United States, several U.S. Civil Defense
posters and U.S.S.R. propaganda posters, target area map, fallout pattern
map, etc.